Da Nile

Apparently the air in Beijing today is worse than is was before they started rationing vehicle use. But hey, there aren't scads of Chinese lying in emergency room wards, now, are there? It's just a nuisance, an ant in the afterbirth of industrialization, so accept it. Rather not see across the street than not have a job, I say.

Along with the the columns of smoke we've been getting from the California fires, we are also seeing an uptick in pollution denier's thoughts on local air quality regulations...in blogs, public forums, letters to the editors...

• When are we going to penalize and fine Mother Earth for all her pollution?
  
• Spare the Air is just a ploy to restrict my choices, to tax me more.
  
• This only shows that the Earth is a far larger polluter than people.
  
• On the worst pollution days, I'm driving my car with the AC on. What, do you think I'm stupid?
  
• In the nineteenth century, fires and smoke were commonplace in the Central Valley, so it's no different now than it was then...except we now have these damn environmental laws, too!

The Association

We are likely going to see what shade of green the gov'na is made of, here in several weeks, assuming the Senate can get senate bill 375 through to his desk.

This is an interesting bill, in that it directs the state transportation commission to allocate billions in transportation funds to change land use patterns, towards a sustainable communities strategy. Transit oriented development might finally have a fighting chance against the dominate stakeholders in opposition to this bill; the Building Industry Association, the Asphalt Pavement Association, Associated General Contractors...you get the idea.

The point is, we are going to face the Legions of the Armageddon before we adopt correct land use patterns. We've got entrenched, powerful Associations that intend on keeping suburban sprawl going, even considering that:

• TOD communities are among the most desirable, sough after places to live;
  
• 2/3rds of this state wants us to take decisive action to reduce GHGs;
  
• GHGs and land use are inexorably linked;
  
• Sprawl doesn't survive a $5+ dollar gas paradigm...and it's likely coming sooner than later.

On the other hand, the gov'na raves about the billions spent on the state's highway system to reduce congestion --that is, letting the state pay for the roads and infrastructure to link up the vast expanses of Association-supported tract-home developments that lack employment centers, schools and services.

What will the 'green' gov'na do?

Lack of Independence

So here it comes. The death of the last independent grocery in Sacramento. The locally owned Corti Bros. will be relocating after 38 years. Relocating where? They don't even know. But they will no longer be within walking distance. Damn it. DAMN IT.

To survive mass retailing and the 'efficiencies of scale' as long as they have, they've offered a combination of products and services that chain supermarkets cannot or will not provide.

Now to be sure, they import a lot of specialized products from abroad. Sardines from Portugal. Hot peas from Japan. Cheeses from Ireland. Olive oils from Greece. In general I consciously avoid buying food from afar, so I don't frequent these items...but you will NEVER find these items at Savemart, King Soopers, Safeway, or Von's. Even if these items were/could be produced locally, they'd never be picked up by these chains. Chains operate by ordering sixty tons of block cheese at a crack from Fresno and distributing it via their vaunted efficient distribution networks...not from small, local providers. That you can only get 4 types of cheese, well, you're going to take it because that's all we offer, it's cheap so you're gonna buy it, and if you don't like it, eat shit.

However! Aside from their imported goods, they offer so many other local products that I'll not get elsewhere. Where am I going to find whole wheat pita? I'm not! Where am I going to find unpasteurized orange juice? I'm not! Heirloom tomatoes? Hummus? Haggis? Twenty varieties of California olives, and olive oils? Whole wheat pasta? Lavash bread?

You cannot find whole wheat pitas in chain stores...if you find pitas at all, they're on the bottom shelf, near expiration. And you will never, never! find unpasteurized juices. They don't hold well during trucking to Minnesota, so no one gets them. They are not safe! Bacteria! Fungus! Virus!

In addition to their product line, they offered a full service deli with about as many different types of foods as there are possible, and butchers willing to take your specific order. Try asking your FoodsCo store 'butcher' to cut 2" chops. Yeah, just yell your order through the double swing doors. They would escort you out of the store.

I suppose what I'm really reeling against is the continued loss of our culture -- the continued homogenization of our landscapes, our places of business, and our civic realm. I'll find some damn pita bread elsewhere, I'm sure.

Homo Consumerensis

I distinctly remember in my physical anthropology class the notion that humans aren't just physically similar to other greater apes, but that greater apes' behavior is also extraordinarily similar to humans.

I'm compelled to trust behaviors I can observe, and my past studies have concluded (at least for me) that there is more to our relationship with apes than just our physical appearances. But contrary to slow changes brought about by natural selection and time, we have, within the span of two generations, morphed into a new species, Homo Consumerensis -- in a timeframe heretofore unheard of in evolutionary biology.

Not all humans are ancestors of this new species. And it's likely, as were many extinct Homo species before Sapiens, to simply die out, never to beget any newer species. Consumerensis is a dead branch of our ancestrial tree. Consumerensis thrived on cheap energy and even cheaper mass produced foreign goods, able to geometrically expand in numbers. In an age of expensive energy (Consumerensis' asteroidal impact), can it remain fit enough to continue to reproduce? To spawn little Consumerensi?

An Extreme Form of Democracy

A professor of mine once remarked about how McDonalds 'democratized' their hamburgers...everywhere they were the same, and the corporation made immense efforts to ensure this. And I recall a few years ago when a friend asked me why I hadn't yet bought a new truck, I remarked that 'my truck is just as fast in traffic as is yours."

I didn't put it together until just now, but indeed, traffic is an extreme form of democracy. It cares not about you, your chariot, your rims, your top speed, your missed appointment, your HP vs. torque curve, your patience, or how much or how little you paid for that modded Pacer. Traffic deals everyone the same hand. Asked of Americans, they routinely answer that traffic is in the top three of their most pressing issues.

Top three? Hmmm. Let's see, we've got two wars going on, possible global warming, catabolic economic 'hardships', double digit medical insurance premium adjustments, cancer, problems with children, problems with parents, obesity, terrorists, the underfed, child pornographers and sex offenders, burglaries, hangnails, pissy supervisors, backstabbing co-workers, hanta viruses and bird flu, the unraveling of our moral fabric...

But make me sit in my car for an extra 5 minutes a day and holy shit! We've got to do something to get some of these other cars off the road! The costs to American society, sitting in traffic, is stupendous! Billions trillions! wasted each year in lost productivity! And it's all 'cause of them 'green' assholes who value gasoline more than our time...they're the real problem. Don't want to us to expand our roads cause "it might disrupt the dirt shrimp." Don't want us to drill cause "we might deflower our coastlines." Won't affect prices until 2010 anyway. What about the mother of three cold babies who has to choose between gas and shoes today? What about them?

And Your Point Is...

I heard a very powerful statement when I was a kid. If, today, you took all the wealth from everyone and distributed it evenly to every person...in 20 years time, the people who had wealth today would have it back in 20 years, and the people who don't have it today won't have it then.

I go back and forth between sometimes believing this, and sometimes not. I can't ever know. I also go back and forth between sometimes believing we'll run into oil supply shortages in the future, or that sufficient demand destruction, additional production, or a shift away to another energy source will keep things the same.


Here's a thought experiment. If there are 1 trillion extractable barrels of oil left in the world and there are 6.5 billion people, this is about 150 barrels per person for their entire life. Our lifetime allotment would be 150 barrels, leaving no oil for any follow on generations.

Today in the US, we burn 25 barrels per person per year. At our burn rate, all the oil would last six years if everyone on earth burned it like we do.

But they don't! And god bless them! Mexicans use seven barrels a year, the Chinese, two, and the Indians, eight tenths of a barrel each. Oil wealth is neither distributed nor consumed evenly.

I'm interested in calculating how much I use per year. Is it more or less than 25? Either way, does it really matter? I read a Sea Ray Living magazine yesterday after mowing the lawn. This magazine spotlights the uber-wealthy, and the couple-of-the-month are these two living somewhere in Georgia, owners of a 325 employee cabinet company. Along with their newest Sea Ray yacht was a collection of 60+ muscle cars and two airplanes all housed in a custom hangar (with, of course, their own custom cabinets).

I wonder...if I & others try to use one less barrel of oil this year, won't the drop in demand (and corresponding price) just encourage this couple to buy one more muscle car, or fly a little bit farther? Or for that matter, to enable each Indian to burn a full barrel of oil this year? What's the fucking point?

Sugar and Fat

I'm pretty sure that sugar and fat are the two cheapest foods money can buy. Note that many of the 'good things in life' are made from the direct combination of the two:

• Peanut butter & jelly
• Milk
• Coffee with cream & sugar
• Pork chops & applesauce
• Chocolate
• Granola
• Doughnuts
• Oreos
• Teriyaki beef

It's another paradox that in an era of high food prices we're bound to see higher levels of obesity. People will forgo the more expensive greens, stone fruits and whole grains for cheaper processed foods. It's cheaper for food manufacturers to ship calorie dense processed foods than it is less calorie dense whole foods. More calorie-miles per gallon of diesel.

And I the monologonian am not immune. Although I 'try' to eat good, my eating habits are deplorable for most of the year. With enough disposable income I'm able to ignore the cost of 'more expensive' whole foods but I still don't take sufficient advantage of them. I've got a hollow leg, and combined with type I diabetes, the volume I ingest is (literally) killing me. Then to project this attitude to countless others in this grand nation, to those without disposable income, and their choices are even worse. It is no coincidence that in America the poorest regions also house the most obese.

Although...I don't see why this should necessarily be. The cost per calorie of healthier food is higher only because of the economics of industrialized food production and distribution. Eggplants are grown by the square kilometer with large quantities of fossil fuel fertilizers and pesticides. Then there's the massive network of diesel powered trucks endlessly cycling the freeways to disburse them to all four corners. This goes away if we return to localized production, localized consumption. This empowers whole foods as the raw food 'inputs' aren't sent to some processing facility 700 miles away from the growing region, only to be shipped another 1,100 miles to the consumer. An eggplant grown in your backyard, or at a local CSA, uses far, far less energy.

The way I see it, we as a nation are only going to get more obese, more diseased, as we continue to funnel resources into industrialized food production coupled with high energy costs. The way out of it would be to unravel the system -- but we're not going to do that. So count on double digit health care increases going forward for at least the next decade or so. Count on a continuation of income taxes that subsizide road building/maintenance that doesn't come from use taxes. These are some of the 'socialized costs' associated with our desire to keep our vehicles running at any cost.

Even-Odd

Beijing recently began even-odd driving days in an effort to reduce air pollution prior to the Olympic games here in a week or three.

Let's suppose, in my one man think tank, that this one action really cleaned it up, that suddenly, all visible signs of air pollution were gone, no more respiratory ailments were reported, grime no longer collected on windows and building exteriors anymore. The sun shone again, the trees turned green from grey, birds could be seen again on eaves and balconies.

Do you think Beijingians would voluntarily continue this odd-even (or even-odd) routine?

What I'm really wondering about are the social implications of temporary forced conservation. My gut feeling tells me that, on the whole, Beijingites are receptive to this inconvenience. They have institutions and social structures in place to absorb this change. There share greater experiences than most societies with individual sacrifices for the common good.


Now suppose this was Cincinnati instead of Beijing.

Micro Cat Naps

After 7,000 miles, I changed out my rear bicycle tyre last week. And only 20 miles on the new tyre, I caught a utility razor blade this morning, tick-tick-tick-tick, nearly shredding it all the way through the sidewall. I have to replace it although I obviously don't want to. Only 20 miles. Some tyres get to live full, productive lives, while others are cut short prematurely. Doesn't seem fair, does it?

Off to a later start this morning and traffic was heavy. I was pinned down between the curb and a tractor trailer at 47th but still I felt in control. It's really strange how some days I feel powerless against traffic, while on others, invincible. I am diligent about knowing my whereabouts, but also this morning a red car pulled out into the street and really startled me. It shouldn't have.

On a bicycle I'm forced to give traffic my due diligence. Contrast this with driving a car...how many times have you arrived at work with no recollection of how you got there? It's rote, so much so you ignore your surroundings and ignore yourself. I witnessed, on more than one occasion, my former brother-in-law take micro-cat-naps while driving us back from duck hunting. Freeway speeds and micro-cat-naps...

Driving is such a bore these days that you scan your cabin, looking for things to take your mind elsewheres. And you find them. The dead fly on the dash. The sound of the leaf caught in the fresh air intake blower motor. The half-empty water bottle that you can't reach but rolls up and down, up and down, back and forth, now under the passenger's seat. Didn't I already listen to Onslaught? What's that rattle from the rear door interior trim? This thing still shifts like a god-damn garbage truck and I paid those incompetent thieves $800 to fix it! Warranty? I'll give them their fucking warranty! I'll take their warranty and shove it up their...

Next time you're driving, take the time to notice the hundreds of thousands of tyre skid marks on freeway lanes where there's an approaching neckdown. All those people slamming on the brakes, caught unawares, caught in the cobwebs of their random, elsewhere thoughts. How many end up on top of the car in front of them?

Eagle Craft

There was a new Eagle Craft Verano sitting outside the door to my work this morning. What is it, you say? A scooter, manufactured by the Taizhou Zhongneng corporation in...China! One of our fellow distribution employees bought one recently, she had to assemble it as it as it came in a box, $1800. Low price!

So my HD riding coworker and I were outside commenting on the bike. He's biased because it's not a Harley. I'm biased because it's Chinese. The front plastic emblem was crooked; that was the only thing we could find fault with, but that's apparently enough. "A piece of shit," we both collectively muttered under our breath.

I'm struck by the name, Eagle Craft. This implies some American manufacturing ethos built into this scooter. I can see it now; a bibbed, mustachioed Midwestern steel worker, sweat on the brow, hand forging intake valves for an Eagle Craft street machine. Bold, American detailing, custom built in the heartland where legends come to life. Born of fire and freedom, the Eagle Craft will take back the streets!

Come On In, The Water's Fine

I like to say that I have one foot planted in my old, energy intensive life, and one foot in newer, more sustainable waters.

Yet a few events are conspiring to pull my foot from the sustainable pool. As much as I'm personally trying to do things better, I think I only have one big toe in...perhaps halfway up the metatarsals.

First: Elk Grove's E-tran. Elk Grove incorporated as a city several years back, and one initial action was to separate from Sacramento Regional Transit (RT) and go on their own. Well, for whatever reason they decided to buy a refurbished fleet of hybrid busses. I say 'whatever reason,' as if a couple of 'green' busses somehow make the rest of the city's asinine low density sprawl OK. In any event, the busses broke down on the freeways, 4 of them caught fire (or rather, thermal events), hot in the summer and cold in the winter, and they were all pulled from service after 33 months. Their expected service life was 12 years. The costs, future and present, are going to seriously disrupt the level of service we currently have. I don't know what the costs are. I don't know what the disruptions will be.

Second: The looming fight. I blogged before about how my wife and I will fight about offing one car to get a scooter. Well, the fight is on! All weekend we argued over selling the Honda, until it finally ended with "Fine, then we're not getting a scooter." That's just the first battle, not the war. I have no idea how the war will be waged, who will capitulate, or who will offer reparations.

Third: SMUD. My employer has been located in the same place for God knows how long. But suddenly, within two years of my coming here, there's a plan underway to move the service yard (with all the bucket trucks, spools of cables, transformers, etc.) to a larger location and in the process, operations will move with them, and that includes me.

We need another 9 acres, apparently, on top of the 22 we already have. There will be no way we will find a 30+ acre site anywhere near quality public transportation, or even freeway close. The current likely suggested site is near the Granite quarries out near Kiefer and Watt. Probably a good mile to two miles south of light rail. And that's just a proposed site. They could easily decide on some other location like McClellan, Foothill Farms, Rancho Cordova, or Citrus Heights.
Six years and counting until this new home is established. If I'm lucky, it will be more like ten years, the way SMUD moves. But then, because it's fuckering up my sustainable action plan, I bet we fast track this in four years time! Just my luck.

As much as I like my current job, I will jump ship and move into some new area in customer services (which will still stay in our present location). I would rather do that than be forced into automobile commuting again, no matter how much less I'd make.

Umbrage

A scathing rebuttal! I had to result to insults to finally get a comment on the Monologues. I alluded to an invisible 100 foot tether between my sister's ankle and her car and that sent her over the edge!

I actually like that visual, that's some clever shit. Just like some car alarms used to say "Please step away from the vehicle," I see one whose owner leaves its 100 foot perimeter and a shock collar keeps him in line. Zaap. "Where are you going, Dave?"

I decry my suburbia and assume that with a better, more human scaled environment, I should be able to caper about with fewer vehicles. So I look to my sister who does live in such a place and who's as socially responsible as they come and wa-la! One vehicle per human!

Here's the deal. First off, you have to accept my bias, my personal contempt for the way we've laid out transportation. Then you have to accept my hypocrisy, someone who continues to own more than one vehicle per human. If you can accept this, then realize that the US has over 800 cars per 1,000 people...far in excess of every other industrialized country. It's not much of a stretch to equate this with an invisible tether...you gotta wash them, finance them, maintain them, lock and alarm them, insure them, register them, smog them, gas them, oil them, make payments on them, and hope they don't get stolen or you don't wreck them. About 20% of a vehicle's total energy drawdown comes from its manufacturing and disposal. Driving it less doesn't affect these energy inputs. Owning two cars that are driven less than one makes no energy sense, outside of financial sense.

It is exceedingly difficult to find one job that's close to work, or close by way of public transportation. Then, to suppose that a two income household can find two jobs close to the same residence, well, that's nigh impossible, now isn't it...but somehow, elsewhere, in every other nation on earth, they manage with fewer vehicles. What enables them? If you take the argument that your job mandates some vehicular provenance, won't everyone do the same?

But they are doing the same! Consider the staggering impact of moving China from 35 cars per 1,000 to 800! Modeled after us. They have as many cars per person, now, as we did in 1916.

One has to pay a mint, has to have two incomes, to live in a human scaled world because we don't build them anymore, while scads of people clamor for them. But somewhere I must have gone wholly wrong in my assessment that these environments can reduce vehicle ownership. Apparently, physical form can only do so much. Reducing the number of vehicles, apparently, calls for a reduction in living standards, perceived or real. I don't think it has to be this way...but it is.

I concur, however, with the impact of spawn. I have always known of the population bomb, even before I seeded Tyler. There is a virtual one-to-one correlation to energy utilization and population...this is exactly why I fear the development of cars that run on water. We would see an overnight jump to 1,200 cars per 1,000, we'd fucker up ever more habitat, grow ever more, constrain every other natural resource ever more...

Perhaps she also didn't take well my implication that she's the emissary of a consumptive, bankrupt empire in steep decline. That, my dear sis, was a full-on sarcastic insult! Play on!

Maximum Power Point

There is some interesting work going on upstairs here in my utility. SMUD has partnered with one regional developer to apply integrated solar roofs in a new low density development here in Sacramento. I still hold contempt for such sprawlish development...but it's green, right? Slap up some PV and you're green guilt free! But I digress.

The industry doesn't have experience with saturated solar installations; that is, a large quantity of discrete, independent systems operating in the same distributed electrical system. The size of the systems isn't the issue; it's the quantity, because each PV system tries to find its maximum power point.

If we thought of an inverter as a simple charge controller, the PV modules would operate to the utility voltage. But all PV systems have a maximum power point, at which a certain PV voltage produces the most power. This voltage might not 'mesh' with the utility voltage. What a typical inverter does is find this MPP voltage and will operate the PV modules there to extract full power regardless of the utility voltage. But by doing so, each inverter influences utility voltage.

What we think is happening is that once you saturate a network with a number of PV systems, each system now competes with one another to find its MPP. Each influences the network voltage, and the consequence is there might only be one system that can operate at MPP; the rest are operating at less than optimum.

The point of this is to say that we are going to discover a whole new set of problems if we think we can get 100% of our electricity from wind and solar as Gore suggested yesterday. In ten years, no less! The model nation of today is Denmark, which gets 20% from renewables. Do we think that our nation could possibly, even remotely, achieve even the current Denmarkian standard in ten years, with a population replete with energy squanderers and energy policies that can't possibly look out farther than then next election or economic cycle?

Do Nothing, Do Something

As we approach the 7th year following the twin towers downing, I'm trying to think of what I did back in October of that year...what did I do, in terms of what Bush requested some three or four weeks afterwards, by telling us that our "continued participation in the American economy would be greatly appreciated." Something like that.

Well, I didn't put a flag on my car or on its antenna. I didn't buy a new car (wasn't that a direct request?), taking advantage of 0% financing. We did fly out to NYC in November to see the still smoking rubble pile and facade of WTC south. We were doing our patriotic duty to consume, and we did; the vacation was nice, even if somewhat macabre.

All that consumption, however, what did it lead to? Two wars? An impossible-to-maintain run on housing 'units?' Increased personal and public debts? And I'm wondering about the next crisis, and the next "call to consume." Will I do it? Do you suppose it is possible to do nothing, and still do something?

The Return of $3.XX

While the purslane and brown rice is getting ready, I along with all the other 300 million Americans are breathing a sigh of relief! The return of $3.XX gas is right around the corner! Oil and natural gas futures are down! Way down!

A few good returns on how demand destruction is working its way through the Merikan economy and speculators are now short on oil. Speculators don't give a whit about the absolute magnitude of price; they only care that they are on the right side of its movement. They predict us curtailing use.

And apparently we've cut back 5%. That's actually respectable! And it wasn't due to any action on the part of the Franklin Monologues...it was the rest of you. I don't think public trans ridership, bicycling, or scootering to work had a whole lot to do with that 5%, it was likely we just simply stopped recreationally using oil.

My observation is that demand inelasticity increases as demand destruction progresses. That first 5% is easy to get; we air our tires, drive a wee bit slower, combine trips...all the shit we should have been doing from the beginning but were too lazy and stupid to do. 5% does not impact our lifestyles, outside of bringing energy to the front of our reptilian minds. The next 5% will be a lot more difficult; if it takes a 40% price increase to effect a 5% reduction, what price 10%?

And at $3.XX, we can fergettabout conservation!

Purslane: Weed, or Food?

I got a huge bunch of this...stuff, in my CSA box this week. The problem is, I already have a fair crop growing in the cracks in my sidewalk right in front of the house.
Do I cook it? Eat it raw? I'm not going to eat the stuff from my sidewalk, only because earlier in the spring I sprayed glyphosate to eliminate 'weeds.' But herbicides don't last, and here we have purslane growing rampant.

Having never even tried it, I've known it was edible for years, since my horticulture class. Tonight, it will get eaten with a little tomato, onion and rice.

Direct Deposit

I always say I don't want anything for any occasion...and I mean it. I don't need anything either. I really don't mean to be such a downer about all this, but I suppose I've only gotten worse about gift giving over time. I'm not improving.

So here's my suggestion for birthday and Christmas gifts: direct deposit. I would be perfectly happy to receive a direct deposit slip for Christmas.

Spare me the pain and agony of having to open yet another Chinese made piece of shit. Spare me the trauma of trying in vain to get the gift to work, to fit together, or to try to make it last. Just buy the gift and directly deposit it into the landfill, cutting me out of it. It would be going there soon enough, anyway. All I need is the receipt.

• The Chinese laborer will still be employed.
• The Merikan consumptive economy will still be enabled.
• You will feel good about gift giving.
• I will feel good about having not had to expend energy on immediately throwing it away.
• I can then purchase 'green' energy from the landfill methane generation plant...and feel like I'm saving the world.

For anyone wondering what would make a perfect gift for the Franklin Monologues.

GTA IV

Here's another anecdote in our car obsessed culture:

As an eleven year old boy, I walked .8 miles to Scotty's yogurt shop on Whitney Ave., put a quarter in a video console, and maneuvered my Pacman around a grid eating yellow dots while avoiding furry monsters.

Today, my eleven year old boy can choose between a $20 dollar hand job or $40 blow job from a prostitute in Grand Theft Auto IV, dome the bitch afterwards with his 9mm, and evade the bacon down Franklin Blvd. in his pimped out '72 Pacer.

A One-Man Think Tank

One common thread in these converging issues of the environment, the economy and oil pricing, is how much we continue our coddling of excessive motoring.

My sister and brother-in-law are living ambassadors of a culture that cannot see life without personal, private motoring means. They live in midtown San Diego, a place where there is no mandatory Compulsory Motoring Program. It's actually possible for them to live without these prosthetic extensions...but they do not; they each live with their own private vehicle within 100 feet at all times.

No one is spared from being monologued.

Perhaps it's an implausible suggestion to assume that correct urban planning might decrease our reliance on private motoring. Physical form can only do so much. It apparently doesn't do enough to provide for my sister and brother a means to live with just one vehicle, let alone no vehicles.

All we've collectively done over the past 18 months is just drive a little less. If oil goes up fifty bucks, we will just drive a little more less. If a carbon tax is installed, we will just drive a lot more less. If we find a way to decrease the hybrid premium, we will drive a little more. If we find a way to mass produce plug-in hybrids, we will drive a little more more. If oil drops fifty bucks, we will drive a lot more more.

I know my monologues are a one-man think tank, divorced from reality. It's an absurdity to suggest that we ought make other arrangements for living here in Merika, because the reality is we won't. We are so entrenched in a particular living 'standard' that we will destroy ourselves and/or others before we change. All I see, all I see, is that we are too narrowly focused on keeping our cars running at any cost.

I am frightened by the prospect of a vehicle that runs on water, bat shit, or some other alt.energy source. I see that as a green light to pave over every square foot of North America. Driving cannot be 'green', in my humble opinion. This world isn't better because we now have Escalade Hybrids. In my world, in my own little monologued world, it would simply be better with fewer cars.

2018

There's been an interesting call by some Republicans in gub'ment that if we can get Democrats to allow poking holes in ANWR, they will ensure this oil stays in Merika, that it should be put to work to lower American gas prices, not to be exported out to the global oil market.

So...should we also advise oil exporting countries to use all their oil production domestically, and stop exporting?

Then I hear this stupid argument that "even if we began to develop ANWR today, it'll be ten years until it's producing, so it won't help prices today."

Of course it won't. But ten years from now, won't we still be burning oil? Won't all the 370+ million Americans still be laying special claim to using as much energy as they want, when they want? Won't all those NASCAR evangelical morons believe their exclusive, ordained American privilege lies in inexpensive and always available oil?

The Clean Air Fork

Last Friday a utility backed lawsuit struck down the EPA established Clean Air Interstate rule, which resulted in yet another broken tine off the clean air fork. The EPA now has even less ability to enforce controls on major pollutants in industry.

Then, as this EPA administration is famous for, within hours of the ruling EPA also went ahead and determined that it has no obligation to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, that it would have been an unprecedented expansion of their powers, and would impact the economics of every household in the land. This tine, also broken off, means that this EPA has left cleaner air to the next president. Eight years of complete inaction is what we've got.

Not hours after signing the newest energy bill last December, the EPA administrator denied California's waiver request for regulating greenhouse emissions from vehicles, after delaying the decision by almost two years. It came within hours after this 'energy' bill which raised CAFE standards for the first time in, what, three decades? And the reasoning for the denial was incredibly mendacious. "Because I said so" was effectively his response.

First off, since when has any of these Republican led administrations had any concern for an unprecedented expansion of their powers?

I suppose inaction is inevitable.

Entropy Wins

I rode the bicycle only 22 miles this week, to work on Thursday, and back home on Friday. I am suffering from acute plantar fasciitis that isn't so much bothered by riding, but I'm not doing a whole lot of exercising either. My riding is slow.

I suppose if I 'invested' more time and energy into my conditioning, I would be able to increase my speed, but as I age, I will only get slower and slower. At some point, further investment will fail to deliver improvements. I cannot defeat entropy.

I parallel this with aging oilfields, where further investment might just be able to eek out a few more barrels, but entropy always wins; no amount of additional investment can compensate against advanced age. Today there are 23 oil producing nations who have all passed their maximum oil extraction rate, and who knows, perhaps there's another one added every two years. Yet to peak but are on the cusp are Vietnam, Thailand, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan and Brazil.

We have taken a great deal of concentrated fossilized energy and converted it into diffuse carbon dioxide. Oh!, mighty brontosaurus!, you did not die by asteroidial impact in vain...you died to gas up the Pacer for a round trip to Walleyworld.

The Floor

I'm pretty well convinced that what we need to ensure correct, consistent growth in all those hated industries of alternative energies, traditional urban planning, and public transportation is a floor on fossil fuels.

A floor on prices so that we don't lull ourselves into thinking the current price of oil is somehow transitory, that if we just wish hard enough, they will come down. Then, when prices rise more, we raise the floor again.

First of all, bottomless energy prices can be just as destructive to certain segments of the Merikan economy as topless energy. Again, it's only a matter of whose losses we are talking about. There are hundreds of markets today that are thriving on high oil; infill architects, oil pipe suppliers, motorcycle retailers, light rail mechanics, high end prostitution rings, bicycle repair shops, wind generator manufacturing, the list goes on. Perhaps some of these aren't located in the US, but hey, they are thriving nonetheless.

And they will thrive even more with a national energy policy that isn't just focused on raising supply. I read again a transcription of Carter's April 1977 energy address, and it is every bit as valid today as it was then, but we ignored it then and we desperately want to ignore it today. The only thing he was wrong about was the timing...and you know how we like to focus on that one error.

We need to focus on demand. And a floor does just that.

Veterans of Future Wars

We do go to the VFW quite a bit, my father-in-law is a member. My military service, thankfully, fell between wars, and as such, I'm not qualified to be a member. The VFW hall out on Stockton Blvd. is pretty nice. We've hosted a number of family events there; weddings, birthdays, parties, and we've attended quite a few other events. Halloween bashes, breakfasts, etc. My old neighbor used to mind the register. It is a nice place to socialize. But I can't help but think of the next generation of members, the veterans of future wars, who will be tending bar, maintaining the hall, and consuming alcohol in copious quanties. What future wars will they be waging? West African Light? Venezuelan Heavy? Iranian Pre-emptive? Pakistani Incursion?

We don't have any VDW halls in America, but if we continue down the path we're on, I don't doubt we might find ourselves in some sort of domestic entanglement. All we need is one single resource constraint and you can be assured this nation of NASCAR morons will wage war to preserve their entitlement.

Will we be filling that hall with veterans of future domestic wars, or veterans of future foreign wars?

Stimulants

Every time I hear 'stimulus', that oft uttered word in relation to another $82 billion dollars in debt we just carried, I think of how many families simply parlayed that debt right into foreign coffers.

And my family will be one of them.

My check is sitting in the drawer, where it's been sitting for the last four weeks, sitting right alongside my state refund check that's been there for the past two months. I am not in a hurry to do anything with them.

Of course, that's the worst thing I can do with it, now, isn't it? To save it is to harm the economy. Presume I open a CD, or push it to a mutual fund, or cash it in and stuff it into a Posturpedic mattress...this would utterly decimate the Merikan economy. Save it...shit.

Of this $82 billion, my gut tells me that eighty two percent will flow directly to Abu Dhabi and China, to offset higher priced gasoline or to buy yet more worthless shit from Asia. Sixty billion in additional debt, passed onto an unknown future constituency.

But the bulk of my check will flow directly to Italy, or perhaps Japan, to buy a scooter that American manufacturers are incapable of manufacturing. So indeed, I'm not going to invest that 'stimulus' into equities that are falling 2% in value every five days. I'm not going to hoard it in cash that also is devalued daily against foreign currencies. I suppose I could convert it into commodities, but I already have enough into that.

No, let me support foreigners with it. I'll be more American for doing so.

Share the Pain

Schwarzenegger continues to push for fewer subsidies for public transportation here in this most golden of states, because when you're upside down by tens of billions, nothing is spared. I find it interesting that we are doing so during a period of record ridership. I can't say that it won't affect me, but it likely won't, as a regular bus rider, because I already have direct access to what I consider high quality service: every 15 minutes. What's at issue are the scores of people who only have access to hourly or half-hourly service...if it's only hourly, it's because so few people use it, and these routes will be the first to be dropped. Those who do depend on them, suffer.

But in a budget crisis, everyone has to share in the pain.

I said hello and briefly chatted with an elderly lady in a wheelchair yesterday morning at her bus stop on Broadway as I rode past. It made my day, and perhaps I made hers. She is likely someone without access to a private auto, and so is heavily dependent on the local bus system. For her alone, I have no problem paying taxes...so long as they are directed towards the greater good. But then I watched a TV ad last night where another elderly lady said her retirement plan didn't plan on four dollar gas, and she and millions of other retirees were suffering.

A paid actor.

There's going to be a whole class of retirees who will make the claim that they are entitled to burn as much oil as they want. After all, they worked and saved for it, so why the hell not? Visits to distant locales and children, RVing, fabulous cruise ships to see Antarctica before either they die or all the ice is gone...it's their entitlement. And now because of four buck gas, that entitlement is shrinking by the second, so they are suffering.

I wonder what the curve looks like, if you plot environmental consciousness against age. It's probably linear; the older you get, the less you give a shit. As you thunder ever closer to that final whirlpool you realize all the things you've never seen, never done, and you need to take action, now or never. Recreational oil consumption increases, the vacation homes are built. Fuck it, you say -- there's not much time left for me. Take what you can before you leave.

It Puts the Lotion in the Basket

So Stockton has been named the foreclosure capital of the nation. Surprised?

It's not even a suburb -- it's an exurb, as it is only remotely attached by freeway to the Bay Area urb. It's nothing more than a wasteland of tract homes whose occupants shuttle themselves off to work in other locations, because two incomes in the Bay Area aren't enough to live on. No one who moved there in the last fifteen years actually works in Stockton. Over the Altamont they drive.

We enrolled Tyler into day care in about 2002 and we befriended another Elk Grove couple, (Juan & Sarah) with a daughter in day care. They had moved up from San Jose in 2001, tired of the escalating rents, but he still commuted daily to work there. That's a long fucking way, my friend. Two and a third hours, one-way to work for Compaq. They had intentionally bypassed Stockton as a living option, choosing the Sacramento suburbs instead. He drove a short bed Chevy truck, as 30-ish Mexican men are wont to do. Not the most fuel friendly choice for a daily 5 hour+ drive.

But for all those players who couldn't afford Elk Grove or simply didn't want the extra 45 minute drive to Oakland, there was Stockton. Land was flat, cheap, with no trees and hills; a developer's paradise . That the Stockton city core was a hulking, burned out toxic shithole wasn't an issue -- the new money flowed into the exurbs and these new developments prospered. Everyone had to drive to get anywhere and with gas at a buck twenty five...meh, who cares?

I do find it interesting that the way we've developed Elk Grove is the exact same way they did it in Stockton. Here in my region, there is absolutely no difference between Natomas, Folsom, Elk Grove, Lincoln, Rocklin, or Cordova, except for certain exclusivities, price, and status. Otherwise, they all look the same. The same! And you can google down on the suburbs of Memphis, and for miles in all directions (except across the river), the layout looks just like Elk Grove. Suburbia is a monoculture, just like the same big box stores that service every suburban monoculture in existence. If I moved to Memphis or Stockton, there would likely be a Franklin Blvd. that I'd bike on, with a similar set of Monologues. Physical locations and local cultures are completely meaningless. So long as you have HVAC and two vehicles, it makes no difference what suburbia you live in.

That said, I'm curious why Juan and Sarah made a choice not to live in Stockton, where homes were cheaper and work was closer. Ah, yes, the schools! And the pedophiles! That's it! Seeing how every third neighbor is a serial rapist or a former 'altered boy' these days, you can't let your kids walk to school in urban environments. In fact, you can't even let them walk to school in suburbia. They must be motored about. And so Stockton either has shittier schools or four out of ten of its inhabitants are kiddie porn filmmakers or Francis Dollarhydes...otherwise, why not Stockton?

Why not Stockton?

Home prices are attractive! The delta breezes are soothing! Fewer neighbors these days with all the defaults, but hey, God knows we have too many of them to begin with! It's sunny and pleasant year round! With subdivision names like Wyldwind, Blackhawk, and Rhapsody! The rhapsodic wynds of Stockton are indeed fresh and wyld, upon which black hawks take wyng!

G Parkwhay

I long to post photos of my Franklin Blvd. bicycle commute, to document what I get to ride alongside every day. I missed a golden opportunity last week when someone tagged the Union House Creek bridge crossing with "Fuck G Parkwhay." That one would have made the annals of the South Sacramento history books.; it's almost too bad it was so hurriedly removed.

G Parkway, a section 8 housing development that my sheriff neighbor said they hesitate when fielding calls there. A massive iron fence separates the housing 'units' from the Franklin sidewalk...presumably to make white Elk Grove thru-commuters feel safe from the predominately brown inhabitants. This fence is just one of a hundred ways we go about the business of 'no pedestrians welcome here, so drive your fucking car."

So someday I will photo-document my surroundings. They are often not pretty, and with no precondition will I assume they will get better in the future. They won't. G Parkway and the Grains represent the condition all tract suburbs will eventually slum into. The cancer spreads ever outward. My street will not be spared.

But one other insidious development has been coincident with this sad suburban experiment; the complete destruction of architectural concern. There hasn't been one single building built in Elk Grove in the last thirty five years that's worthy of preservation. Not one.

I've got a lot of opinionated observations regarding Elk Grovian architecture, and all of them are negative. I can't possibly imagine that there might be architects employed in a twenty five mile radius of where I live...but there are, and this is the sort of shit our local architects give us:



Does something like this 'cupola' make Elk Grove a more liveable place? Does it? Is your latte's taste enhanced by the visual image this provides? When you enter the curb cut from Elk Grove Blvd. and motor your vehicle into the expansive parking lot, does your gaze lift up to this magnificent spectacle? Will it be worth preserving for our Elk Grovian youngsters to enjoy when they, too, are old enough for caffeine?

Zero the Hero

My fifth grade teacher, Mr. Tucker, was convinced that the world was going to suffer from a shortage of zeros. That's one of the reasons we now use scientific notation...to limit the amount of zeros you have to write out (conservation). And now imagine a future world without them, because our forefathers mismanaged their use. What would our world be like without the zero?

I suppose we would eventually find a way to get along just fine with one through nine, but it might be a rough transition. We use zero today much more often than, say, eight, because it's much more useful and takes the least amount of effort to draw -- it's just a freakin' circle for Christ's sakes. So it's very energy dense -- a lot of use for a small drawing effort (extraction cost). It's useful because you can instantly change any number by a factor of ten simply by adding a zero, without all the mathematical baggage that a seven or a nine comes with.

So if a zero shortage is looming, and we can't easily substitute any other number for it, we had better try to find more. And we do. But soon, the discoveries of new zeros can't keep up with volume we're using. At one point, we discover only three zeros for every four we write. And all those new zeros are coming from harder and harder sources. The first zeros flowed easily from that new ball-point pen; zeros almost came out under their own pressure. But now, sometimes you have to write a whole bunch of circles just to get that first inked zero out; and more critically, sometimes the pen runs dry.

While the zero can be found everywhere in the world, it is first and foremost an Arabic numeral -- so clearly, Arabia holds more zeros in reserve than anyone else. Large consumers of zeros, such as those in the financial and services sectors, ask them to produce more zeros. But they are already producing at full capacity, and with rising demand, and the price of zeros increases. Shit, even the price of zeros now has more zeros! This only further compounds the shortage!

The problem is, we built our economies on the zero. Imagine the Dewey Decimal System as the Dewey Dodecahedral System! No kid would be able to find a book! Biblio-chaos! Our money -- between the one, five, ten, twenty, fifty and one hundred dollar bills, the zero is used seventy percent more than the next most frequent number.

In my personal life I've taken great efforts to reduce my own consumption of zeros -- I didn't use a single one in this whole post. And it's good for my bottom line-- a bank account with nothing but zeros is not a good thing...

Tier IV

Although I can't directly observe declining airline flights into Las Vegas, I understand that a few major carriers are slashing their departures for Sin City.

Now why would that be?

A few weeks back I bought beer ingredients from a local homebrew outlet. He moved locations, to a larger store as business is good these days. I joked with him (someone who really isn't all that sociable) that alcohol and gambling never suffer in recessions. And so it is with alcohol...but gambling? Great Snakes Alive!

But what, exactly, does Las Vegas offer to the economy at large, if you exclude gambling? Vegas was about as fast a growing city as there ever was in the late '90s and most of the '00s. What drove people there? What did they do? I'm not wondering if the servicing of all of Vegas' suburban sprawl was what fueled their growth: as people moved in, more home builders were needed; as they ate, more fast food outlets were required; as they drove, more brake and AAMCO shops were built.

It seems to me that suburbia is a self-reinforcing economic engine. When residential real-estate here in Elk Grove suddenly stopped moving 'units' in early 2007, there was still a shitload of commercial construction that buoyed the engine...because houses always preceed all the other things suburbanites want, like big-box retail, strip malls, small parks on unsalable land near canals and creeks, and of course, roadway expansion to support the crush of vehicular traffic. Lastly come the real commercial buildings, like ancillary hospital-ish buildings, real-estate offices, and banks. These had all begun when the 'recession' struck, so there was some inertia.

Now what? If 'housing starts' don't 'start', then this whole house of cards falls apart -- there's nothing left to fuel future expansion. Sprawl requires more sprawl to keep going, because we're too fucking myopic to push any energy and resources back into earlier development, communities that are close to jobs, town centers, or other civic attractions. All suburban neighborhoods are in the planbook to become slums. Some already have, but eventually all will.

There are defined suburban 'rings' around Sacramento. The first tier was built in the 30's - '50s with Land Park, Oak Park, and River Park. The second tier in the 60's: Fruitridge Manor, Carmichael. The third tier in the 70's and 80's: Orangevale, Pocket, Del Paso Heights. The fourth and (so far) last tier in the 90's and now: Natomas, Elk Grove, Folsom, Douglas, West Sacramento...and with these, came the exurbs: Lincoln, Galt, Wilton, Placerville, Dixon, El Dorado Hills.

Except for all the walled-off, well-heeled, tree lined pre-WWII communities, every tier I through tier III suburb of Sacramento is a rotting piece of shit or shows signs of disease. People with means either take to the expensive mid-town or to tier IV. Where do I live?

EVERY major city in the US did the same thing, including Las Vegas. I'd bet that most Vegas' inner-tier rings are also wastelands by now. Las Vegas' growth was likely all the fleeing inhabitants of Southern California cities' tier I-III, to begin anew in the tier IV desert.

EGCMP

The Elk Grove Compulsory Motoring Program is alive and well. We had to drive down to Grant Line Rd. and the highway to get to the Vespa scooter store. I'm in the northern part of this 'city' and I rarely drive around the southland, but I saw the new construction on the Sheldon Rd. overcrossing and the Grant Line Rd. overcrossing, in support of the new regional open air mall, shed-jooled to open sometime in 2009.

Massive construction efforts to widen the Grove's bridges have been going on for fifteen years, because the 'city' expanded both east and west of the highway. But these overcrossings, every one of them, are fit for fast moving vehicles, and fast moving vehicles only. It's not as if anyone ever walked across the original Sheldon Rd. bridge, but now it's most certainly suicide for pedestrians, bicyclists, and...scooterists.

I place 'city' in quotes only because Elk Grove is a city only in name. It's really a suburban slum with strip-mall retail. It's been underwritten by inexpensive gasoline for two decades, and with cheap gasoline, the City Council underwrote the Compulsory Motoring Program.

The thing is, we are continuing to fund this bad loan, but now with expensive gasoline. A quick look at the map will reveal that this new Open Air Promenade (i.e., big outdoor strip mall) has been placed at the extreme southern end of all current growth. 97% of the 140k+ Elk Grovians live to the north, of which 90% commute farther north to the job centers of this region.

No planner in their right fucking mind would put their retail crowning jewel (anchored by Target and Penny's, by the way) at the edge of development. You can see where this is going...they are planning for another 140k+ of growth to occur south of Grant Line over the next three decades...growth in low density suburbia to commute even further to the north and to shop at their mall.

This is just an extension of the EGCMP. Even if high gasoline reduces southern growth, we still have the issue that the existing 97% of the mall shoppers in this 'city' will all have to drive south to participate in mall shopping.

The Loomin' Fight

We aren't in a rush to buy a scooter. We will do it soon enough, that's for sure, but I am going to stick to my guns and sell a vehicle to do it. And I'm going to fight my wife over this, and it's going to get ugly!

I mean, come on...if I will soon have access to a scooter to get me to work on days I don't want to ride the bicycle, or on days I don't want to take the bus, then why the hell should I maintain a second car in the driveway that will be driven even less?

First of all, scooter sales are booming. There's a premium that I'd pay just to get one, like there are premiums on Priuses. Buying one at the all-time gasoline price peak is not very smart. However, I can offset this unknown premium by selling the Civic which likely carries its own premium. It's likely a sought after car for the millions of maxed-out SUV owners who saw their Tahoe lose eight grand in value overnight and can't bear to sell it, but can't bear to service its fuel cost either.

Fucking unbelievable! I just can't imagine being someone who shelled out forty two thousand for a rig in 2004 that today might fetch twenty two. I also just can't imagine being someone who wants to buy a used rig for twenty two thousand today. And...I just can't imagine being someone who just bought a scooter while paying maintenance and insurance on a car that will sit in the driveway even more.

I've gotten over infatuations with material possessions, but my wife never will, and that's why we'll fight. Her view is the American way, isn't it? Can't live without your stuff, and you can't live with it, so off to public storage it goes! Or in my case, into the closets and corners it goes. My house is stuffed, stuffed! I make no bones about how much shit I have in my house and how much I detest it. But I cannot win against my wife and kid, who hoard to no end. I have control over a few areas; my garage, my shed, my bathroom sink, and my bedroom end table. These areas are clean and clutter free, and the rest of the house you have to wade through eight inches of clutter. Every horizontal surface in the house, by law, must be cluttered with stuff, and they are. If there's an unoccupied surface on a desk, a shelf, a room corner, a cabinet, or a mantle, she has to buy something to fill the void. Every drawer in the house is bursting.

I love my family, but I don't love the stuff.

And seeing how the Civic is 'mine' and the Dodge is 'hers', well, there's no issue with me getting rid of 'my' car. It's going to happen.

Dirt Abatement

At 1PM yesterday I took out the hose and ladder and washed off the solar panels; actually, I scrubbed them, they really hold onto the dirt, even with a 19 degree slope.

Before washing, I was producing 1550 watts. It took me about 13 minutes to scrub them down, and then I noticed I was up to 1720 watts. A massive change! I wasn't sure if it was due to the removal of dirt or that I cooled off the hot panels with the water...but at the end of the day I produced 8.25kWh, besting every day over the last month, so I'm convinced it wasn't the cooling, which was only temporary, but the dirt abatement that made the difference.

I'll likely get 8.5 today, about 1kWh a day better than before, so this is a huge difference, about 13%. In this respect, I'm glad I mounted the panels where I can easily wash them off.

Edit: Now I'm lost. The following day I was back down to 7.5kWh...so now I really don't know what to believe. Both the 4th and the 5th were identical days -- same temps with no cloud cover. Was it the temporary cooling of the panels? I suppose I will just hose them off today at about noon to see if there's any change. The panels, of course, are quite thin, so I think that they certainly do cool off readily when hosed, not a whole lot of stored heat energy.

We'll see.

Further Edit (Aug 2): I did see. Cooling the panels is significant. Today at peak I simply watered the panels down and saw the same immediate increase, from 1550W to 1710W, along with a 55V increase, from 315V to 370V. If there was a way to cycle cooling water up with a small pump (something that uses less than .25kWh a day) I could make some impressive long term gains...especially as my water is not metered.

I would thus find a way to recycle that water to the lawn and offset sprinkling. This is something I should look into...is it possible to get a sufficient water stream up to the roof before it warms up? Perhaps a system that cycles; cold water is brough up and misted over the panels, it cycles off, and excess water in the tubes/pipes is discharged out to the grass so when I cycle again it isn't at roof temperature. This would give me perhaps 25kWh per month over the three or four summer months, for a total gain of ~90kWh. And remember, I only hosed down the panels for about 9 total minutes and saw a 1kWh daily gain...what would I get if it were cooled down for 5 hours a day? A 90kWh yearly gain would be a 3.5% increase in efficiency.

Loki and Scooter

I like my dog's name, Loki. His brother was bought by my mother-in-law, and she named him Wedo (the dog is all white, and Wedo is white in Spanish).

Both unique names! But when my mother-in-law couldn't take the dog any longer, she offed him to my sister-in-law, who changed his name to Scooter. Not a very original name if you ask me.

Now, to shift gears, I went to look at Vespa scooters yesterday afternoon. The king of scooters if you ask me, but also with a king sized price. So here I am, pondering three brands:

Lance, Chinese, 150cc, $2100.
Yamaha Vino, Japanese, 125cc, $2950
Piaggio Vespa, Italian, 150cc, $4300.

Notice, of course, that not one is manufactured in the good 'ol USofA. Hmmmm. I wonder why. Not enough profit margin per bike? Too fuel efficient for American manufacturing, and not enough lobbying on their behalf in Congress? Perhaps we don't have skilled manufacturing labor anymore? Insufficient domestic demand, coupled with foreign demand that can't pay the American premium to support American labor wages?

So, my domestic dollars will be spent to support foreign labor, which, to be honest, is perfectly fine with me. I'm willing to support domestic labor but clearly I don't have a choice in this matter. I can't buy American, I don't see it as a moral issue, so fuck American automobile laborers...I won't buy their fuel inefficient products in any event.



I am vying the Vespa. I know it's a lot more expensive, but there are sixty years behind this product, I can find parts, I can find a lot of info on maintaining them on the web (as I'm prone to doing my own work on them) and they simply have the fit and finish of a bike that looks like it will survive a few decades of use.

Solar Shares

This Wednesday I purchased another 2kW solar PV system, doubling my system size to 4kW total. I now meet 65% of my energy needs from PV.

02/04/09: Redirect: You can find my actual solar share production values here and my financial analysis of this program.

I bought a piece of a 1MW solar farm in Wilton through the SMUD solar shares program, a first-of-its-kind system in the nation, that allows people to purchase a share of this solar farm for a fixed monthly fee. My electric bill is charged this fee, but in return, my share of the PV production is credited back to the bill.

I am credited a fixed monthly PV production credit for 20 years. I am charged $53 per month for 20 years...to pay back the initial cost of installation. The production is 3,472 kWh per year, spread out monthly as PV production varies by month. The kWh credits 'reduce' my energy consumption by the same amount, and I'm billed the difference.

My expectation is that future energy prices, over the next 20 years, will rise faster than the historical average. I temper this expectation with observation: SMUD just increased rates 7% this year, while the end of 2009 will bring a near double digit increase, not to mention what 10, 15, and 20 years out might bring. Based on a 3.5% yearly rate increase (roughly the rate of inflation) I'll be dollars ahead by the year 2016. That is, my fixed $53 fee never changes, it's fixed for 20 years...but the credit will offset energy that (I believe) will be more expensive in the future.

An awesome system if you ask me. This solar farm takes advantage of better federal tax credits and economies of scale, and is built correctly (no shade and perfect orientation). I don't have an upfront cost, like I did with my own solar system, but instead I amortize it over 20 years. I also have a production guarantee of 3,472 kWh, each year, for the entire time I'm enrolled.

However, solar is a gamble. A gamble, because I could lose financially for any one of three reasons: 1) SMUD rates don't grow as fast as inflation; 2) I leave SMUD service and lose out on my early payments, or 3) solar technologies advance to where solar panels substantially drop in price during the next 20 years.

These concerns can be tempered.

I don't think #1 is realistic. I don't believe electricity in the future will be cheaper than it is today, in relative terms. For #2, I don't have any intention of leaving the SMUD service territory. Even if I move houses in Sacramento, my shares go with me. As for #3, well, this is the biggest unknown. Forty years of PV technology has led to what I am buying today, and there is no doubt that a technological advancement might make future PV so inexpensive that renders both my system and my solar share system obsolete. But...I'm gambling that this won't happen over the next 20 years, and it is a gamble I am willing to take. Why?

Because even if I lose out financially, I still win environmentally. That is as much a reason to engage in this as are dollars spent. People like me engage in such ventures, if nothing else, to help promote a viable PV market, spurring others to develop better PV technologies. It is also a socially responsible action.

More details to follow.

Edit, 1/6/2009: Regarding the #3 risk above, SMUDs program team plans to spread cost reductions for future PV capacity additions across ALL Solar Shares customers by aggregating the costs. That is, we will build into our rate structure a provision to meld the costs of early Solar Shares projects with later ones. If a new farm is brought on-line 8 years from now that is less expensive to build as this first one, then the rate structure (the monthly subscription fee) is modified to account for the difference. The subscription fee has the potential to be lowered (not raised) based on the fixed costs laid out for all Solar Shares projects, and benefits earlier participants who paid for more expensive PV power. Clearly, later participants then won't be afforded a PV solar share system that's as inexpensive as the last installation. This hedges against reduced future solar costs, something not available to me as a direct PV owner. Another reason Solar Shares is an awesome program relative to installing your own system.

However, this could easily be viewed as a subsidy; newer participants subsidize the earlier entrants...a Ponzi/Madoff scheme! Well, not exactly...consider that the current participants are, right now, entering into a proposition with an unproven track record; unproven throughout the industry, and are taking a financial risk. This risk may be mitigated by the potential for future rate restructuring.


SMUD is going to the board to raise rates again in 2009/2010. I'm 100% positive. Virtually every California utility will do the same, because utilities are all experiencing common issues:

• Customer revenues are all significantly down (no growth=no money, a common thread)
• Natural gas and commodities prices in 2008 led to high mid-term contractual pricing. The recent plummeting market price has certainly helped, but the vast majority of gas is purchased on contract, not on the spot market, and we aren't expecting much relief.
• Regulatory fees have increased faster than expected (not surprising if you look at all we have to now jump through to meet FERC reliability requirements.)
• CAISO is going to jack us with MRTU transmission wheeling cost increases.
• Credit market entanglements have reduced interest income on invested securities while interest costs on debt are higher.
• Employee health premiums are continuing to rise at an annual double digit rate (seemingly ad infinitum) and who believes we're gonna see those come down anytime soon? Even if premium increases slowed by half, that would still be ~5% per year.
• Another dismal water year.

Insania

The Peak

There is substantially less traffic today than there was in 2004. '04 was peak SUV, peak wages, nearly peak home values, peak employment, peak consumption, peak pollution, peak dollar, and peak roadway deaths. I typically try to stage my weekly commutes such that I always ride the bike home on Fridays, because historically, that's always been the worst traffic of the week.

No longer. Franklin Blvd. is dead after 5:00. Fewer commuters and fewer people recreationally burning oil driving to see friends, eat at restaurants, drive to the movies, or drive to the gym.

This is good for me. In fact, it's excellent. Fewer cars means fewer chances to die on the bike. When we go out to eat, there's not a crush of people competing for tables. I have the discretionary income to eat out because I'm not blowing my rent money at the casino or on gasoline. I also have it because we didn't buy his and her matching SUVs or plasma TVs for each room in 2004.

'08 can also be described in other peak terms: peak unemployment, peak credit defaults, peak personal debts, peak oil prices, peak Euro/Yen, peak national debt, peak discontent with Congress, peak state deficits, peak worries, and peak food prices.

And to be honest, I am a much more content person now than I was four years ago, regardless of what's going on around me, and regardless of my contempt for it all. I would take 2008 over 2004 anyday.

The Fourth

I recently commented on the terrible state of Chinese manufactured goods, but I must retract a bit. Fireworks and pain medications are both universally manufactured there are they both seem to be pretty good, at least the illegal ones.

I find it somewhat fitting that, to celebrate the most American of holidays, my family drove our Japanese car to a makeshit wooden stand to buy Chinese made fireworks. We also drove to the big box supermarket, WINCO, to buy Mexican eggplants to grill on the Weber, manufactured in Canada.

This is wholly American, isn't it?

The Yawn

Aced the motorcycle written test last week, so technically I'm permitted. Also passed the 1/2 drivers written test, so all I need for an M1 license is to pass the on-road test.

It appears we will be buying a scooter sometime soon. Last Friday we went to a small local garage where the dude sells Lance scooters. Lance is manufactured in China, and the quality...well, that's why I'm blogging.

Now how is it that all Chinese merchandise is such shit? I mean, universally: sockets, headphones, toys, clock radios, scooters, briefcases, bicycles, lawn mowers, fountain pens, box wrenches...every fucking thing produced from that country is a piece of shit! Tell me, does a Hangzou factory worker, after spending the day manufacturing an utter piece of shit product for export, go home to work on his bicycle using an utter piece of shit wrench manufactured by some other Chinese factory worker? Does he curse the Gods when that wrench 'yawns'? Does he curse the fact that he has to work on his bicycle more than he rides it because the bicycle itself is an utter piece of shit built by yet another Chinese factory worker?

Does he feel proud of his work? Is he proud to manufacture a 12mm wrench that's more like 12.3mm, whose chrome plating peels off after first use, bends after the second use, and rusts after the third use...and feel like he's advanced mankind? I have to think he doesn't give a shit; doesn't give a damn about his life's work -- he just wants work. Nothing else matters. He's a cog in a global export machine who simply needs to compete against the factory workers in the next village.