I commuted by single occupant motorized vehicle today because I am attending a training class in Folsom this week. Because the entire Sacramento region lacks multi-hour public transit, I was forced into single occupant self-motoring as there is no public transit available to me beyond 5:15 PM from Folsom. The training class breaks at 5:30 PM.
And I can't really bicycle in the dark...or there won't be a blog post the following day. Too dangerous with our complete lack of bicycle options beyond the traffic lanes.
I've not seen traffic like I saw tonight since 2003. Sorry, there is no recession going on, based on the number of vehicles I saw this evening. With gas at ~$2.10, people are driving more now than ever. More than ever.
The volume of traffic I witnessed today...Elk Grovians should be celebrating the 'recession'. Each of these fuckers, cocooned in their own private vehicle, should be praising the fact that there aren't another 6,000 commuters vying for the same roadway. 6,000 less because they were foreclosed on, fired, or laid off. Elk Grove has lost nearly 8% of its pre-crisis population.
Showing posts with label cheap gas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cheap gas. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Monday, October 20, 2008
Crisis and Complacency
This is a very interesting lull we're in. Markets are flat, housing starts are flat, gas prices are flat -- all of which came crashing down from all time highs recently. We are complacently awaiting the next crisis.
I blabber on that as oil again goes on the cheap, we'll lose our collective ability to see very far down the road. In 2003 gas was uber-cheap and Detroit couldn't produce large vehicles fast enough. There was zero discussion regarding drill, baby, drill. Five years later, for a brief moment, we all thought we could only afford scooters and hybrids to keep our perpetual motoring dreams alive. My guess -- we're going to see a fresh resurgence in the volume of big vehicles on the road again, because the used car lots are stuffed with such inventory and credit to those least likely to pay it back will soon be available again. They will overextend themselves to get the 'steal' of '09-- the used '06 Yukon that had been defaulted on by its previous 'owner.'
On Franklin Blvd., I've noticed a substantial reduction in the really big bling. There aren't nearly as many $48k Escalades and Hummers with $5k rims and $6k sound/DVD systems as there were even two years back. It's no coincidence that I see fewer of them at the same time we see the failure of cheap credit, telling me that these machines were never owned by their drivers.
This fresh SUV resurgence will soon again put upward pressure on global oil production, again raising both price and alarms. Merika can only live in two states it seems; crisis and complacency. For a very brief moment here we are living in a complacent lull, waiting for the smoldering remnants of the last crisis to ash over and the tsunami of the next crisis to wash over. As we wait, we do nothing to prevent/prepare ourselves for the next [inevitable] crisis, even though we can see each of them coming a hundred miles down the road. Ecological unsustainability? The end of cheap oil? Aging population/aging infrastructure? 27% annual health care premium increases? Eviscerated manufacturing? Failure of Medicare & Social Security?
I blabber on that as oil again goes on the cheap, we'll lose our collective ability to see very far down the road. In 2003 gas was uber-cheap and Detroit couldn't produce large vehicles fast enough. There was zero discussion regarding drill, baby, drill. Five years later, for a brief moment, we all thought we could only afford scooters and hybrids to keep our perpetual motoring dreams alive. My guess -- we're going to see a fresh resurgence in the volume of big vehicles on the road again, because the used car lots are stuffed with such inventory and credit to those least likely to pay it back will soon be available again. They will overextend themselves to get the 'steal' of '09-- the used '06 Yukon that had been defaulted on by its previous 'owner.'
On Franklin Blvd., I've noticed a substantial reduction in the really big bling. There aren't nearly as many $48k Escalades and Hummers with $5k rims and $6k sound/DVD systems as there were even two years back. It's no coincidence that I see fewer of them at the same time we see the failure of cheap credit, telling me that these machines were never owned by their drivers.
This fresh SUV resurgence will soon again put upward pressure on global oil production, again raising both price and alarms. Merika can only live in two states it seems; crisis and complacency. For a very brief moment here we are living in a complacent lull, waiting for the smoldering remnants of the last crisis to ash over and the tsunami of the next crisis to wash over. As we wait, we do nothing to prevent/prepare ourselves for the next [inevitable] crisis, even though we can see each of them coming a hundred miles down the road. Ecological unsustainability? The end of cheap oil? Aging population/aging infrastructure? 27% annual health care premium increases? Eviscerated manufacturing? Failure of Medicare & Social Security?
Thursday, July 17, 2008
The Return of $3.XX
While the purslane and brown rice is getting ready, I along with all the other 300 million Americans are breathing a sigh of relief! The return of $3.XX gas is right around the corner! Oil and natural gas futures are down! Way down!
A few good returns on how demand destruction is working its way through the Merikan economy and speculators are now short on oil. Speculators don't give a whit about the absolute magnitude of price; they only care that they are on the right side of its movement. They predict us curtailing use.
And apparently we've cut back 5%. That's actually respectable! And it wasn't due to any action on the part of the Franklin Monologues...it was the rest of you. I don't think public trans ridership, bicycling, or scootering to work had a whole lot to do with that 5%, it was likely we just simply stopped recreationally using oil.
My observation is that demand inelasticity increases as demand destruction progresses. That first 5% is easy to get; we air our tires, drive a wee bit slower, combine trips...all the shit we should have been doing from the beginning but were too lazy and stupid to do. 5% does not impact our lifestyles, outside of bringing energy to the front of our reptilian minds. The next 5% will be a lot more difficult; if it takes a 40% price increase to effect a 5% reduction, what price 10%?
And at $3.XX, we can fergettabout conservation!
A few good returns on how demand destruction is working its way through the Merikan economy and speculators are now short on oil. Speculators don't give a whit about the absolute magnitude of price; they only care that they are on the right side of its movement. They predict us curtailing use.
And apparently we've cut back 5%. That's actually respectable! And it wasn't due to any action on the part of the Franklin Monologues...it was the rest of you. I don't think public trans ridership, bicycling, or scootering to work had a whole lot to do with that 5%, it was likely we just simply stopped recreationally using oil.
My observation is that demand inelasticity increases as demand destruction progresses. That first 5% is easy to get; we air our tires, drive a wee bit slower, combine trips...all the shit we should have been doing from the beginning but were too lazy and stupid to do. 5% does not impact our lifestyles, outside of bringing energy to the front of our reptilian minds. The next 5% will be a lot more difficult; if it takes a 40% price increase to effect a 5% reduction, what price 10%?
And at $3.XX, we can fergettabout conservation!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
