And Your Point Is...

I heard a very powerful statement when I was a kid. If, today, you took all the wealth from everyone and distributed it evenly to every person...in 20 years time, the people who had wealth today would have it back in 20 years, and the people who don't have it today won't have it then.

I go back and forth between sometimes believing this, and sometimes not. I can't ever know. I also go back and forth between sometimes believing we'll run into oil supply shortages in the future, or that sufficient demand destruction, additional production, or a shift away to another energy source will keep things the same.


Here's a thought experiment. If there are 1 trillion extractable barrels of oil left in the world and there are 6.5 billion people, this is about 150 barrels per person for their entire life. Our lifetime allotment would be 150 barrels, leaving no oil for any follow on generations.

Today in the US, we burn 25 barrels per person per year. At our burn rate, all the oil would last six years if everyone on earth burned it like we do.

But they don't! And god bless them! Mexicans use seven barrels a year, the Chinese, two, and the Indians, eight tenths of a barrel each. Oil wealth is neither distributed nor consumed evenly.

I'm interested in calculating how much I use per year. Is it more or less than 25? Either way, does it really matter? I read a Sea Ray Living magazine yesterday after mowing the lawn. This magazine spotlights the uber-wealthy, and the couple-of-the-month are these two living somewhere in Georgia, owners of a 325 employee cabinet company. Along with their newest Sea Ray yacht was a collection of 60+ muscle cars and two airplanes all housed in a custom hangar (with, of course, their own custom cabinets).

I wonder...if I & others try to use one less barrel of oil this year, won't the drop in demand (and corresponding price) just encourage this couple to buy one more muscle car, or fly a little bit farther? Or for that matter, to enable each Indian to burn a full barrel of oil this year? What's the fucking point?