Tier IV

Although I can't directly observe declining airline flights into Las Vegas, I understand that a few major carriers are slashing their departures for Sin City.

Now why would that be?

A few weeks back I bought beer ingredients from a local homebrew outlet. He moved locations, to a larger store as business is good these days. I joked with him (someone who really isn't all that sociable) that alcohol and gambling never suffer in recessions. And so it is with alcohol...but gambling? Great Snakes Alive!

But what, exactly, does Las Vegas offer to the economy at large, if you exclude gambling? Vegas was about as fast a growing city as there ever was in the late '90s and most of the '00s. What drove people there? What did they do? I'm not wondering if the servicing of all of Vegas' suburban sprawl was what fueled their growth: as people moved in, more home builders were needed; as they ate, more fast food outlets were required; as they drove, more brake and AAMCO shops were built.

It seems to me that suburbia is a self-reinforcing economic engine. When residential real-estate here in Elk Grove suddenly stopped moving 'units' in early 2007, there was still a shitload of commercial construction that buoyed the engine...because houses always preceed all the other things suburbanites want, like big-box retail, strip malls, small parks on unsalable land near canals and creeks, and of course, roadway expansion to support the crush of vehicular traffic. Lastly come the real commercial buildings, like ancillary hospital-ish buildings, real-estate offices, and banks. These had all begun when the 'recession' struck, so there was some inertia.

Now what? If 'housing starts' don't 'start', then this whole house of cards falls apart -- there's nothing left to fuel future expansion. Sprawl requires more sprawl to keep going, because we're too fucking myopic to push any energy and resources back into earlier development, communities that are close to jobs, town centers, or other civic attractions. All suburban neighborhoods are in the planbook to become slums. Some already have, but eventually all will.

There are defined suburban 'rings' around Sacramento. The first tier was built in the 30's - '50s with Land Park, Oak Park, and River Park. The second tier in the 60's: Fruitridge Manor, Carmichael. The third tier in the 70's and 80's: Orangevale, Pocket, Del Paso Heights. The fourth and (so far) last tier in the 90's and now: Natomas, Elk Grove, Folsom, Douglas, West Sacramento...and with these, came the exurbs: Lincoln, Galt, Wilton, Placerville, Dixon, El Dorado Hills.

Except for all the walled-off, well-heeled, tree lined pre-WWII communities, every tier I through tier III suburb of Sacramento is a rotting piece of shit or shows signs of disease. People with means either take to the expensive mid-town or to tier IV. Where do I live?

EVERY major city in the US did the same thing, including Las Vegas. I'd bet that most Vegas' inner-tier rings are also wastelands by now. Las Vegas' growth was likely all the fleeing inhabitants of Southern California cities' tier I-III, to begin anew in the tier IV desert.