- Energy
- Solar -- I predict we won't even come close to our 2009 projections for meeting the state mandate of a million solar rooftops by 2018. This was set by Schwarzenegger in 2006 with SB1. With the state in fiscal Armageddon, with homeowners at near record levels of private debt, and with natural gas at 5-year lows, solar will be put on hold for 2009. I predict no substantial breakthroughs in lowered PV panel costs, nanosolar, or any other alt.solar technologies.
- Oil -- I don't see significant changes in production or demand over the next year. We've moved away from the crisis of 2008 into the complacency of 2009, so we won't even consider ANWR or any other domestic development in 2009. I predict that all our 2008 chattering about moving us towards "energy independence" will result in 2009 importing 65% of our oil instead of 63% by the end of the year. We will be more dependent, not less. Drill! Baby! Drill! will be replaced by Drive! Baby! Drive! Oil will rise again and average above $60 a barrel for 2009, if nothing else but to keep the Canadian tar sands in production.
- Natural Gas -- A bright spot for sure, as we've likely over committed our domestic production due to the 2008 price spike. This will keep electricity rates the same for 2009 with a corresponding flat demand.
- Wind -- No significant developments expansion will occur as fossil fuels are too cheap to concern ourselves with wind. Sure, we'll put up a few turbines here and there, but the rate of wind expansion will flatline in 2009 relative to the heady days of yesteryear.
- My Public Realm
- Architecture -- We'll see no Elk Grovian building erected in 2009 with any ruin value or worthy of heritage preservation. No buildings will be erected that enhance the public realm, only private enterprise. No mixed use developments will be installed in Elk Grove this year.
- Franklin Blvd. -- more automobiles than ever will ply the Franklin roadway in 2009, and a larger share of them will be unregistered, unable to pass emissions tests, and will be driven by unlicensed drivers. This will be verified only through my direct observations by bicycle and will be subject to my bias, but I predict that more jalopies will be driven, as we aren't selling new vehicles, putting your Monologueonian at further risk of dismemberment and/or permanent disfigurement.
- Transportation
- Public Transportation -- the state will continue to slash funding for RT and E-tran and I predict a reduction in the level of service available to me as a user.
- Cars -- The Big Three will all remain on life support, but alive, at our expense. Their detailed plans for marketing efficient cars as stipulated in the original auto bailout bill will never see the light of day because we shunted that requirement when we used TARP monies. Hybrid sales as a percentage of sales will be less in 2009 than last year. No progress will be made on higher CAFE standards set to start to take effect in 2012 -- that is, they won't bother getting a head start on fuel efficiencies. I predict the demise of the Escalade and Chevy Tahoe Hybrid models. GM will announce a price tag (MSRP) in excess of $37,500 for the 2010 Chevy Volt. Environmentalism for rich guilty white people only.
- Rail -- Light Rail into Elk Grove (RTs Phase II southern expansion) will not begin in 2009. It will be delayed due to lack of interest. It will fall back by yet another year and will not meet the 2012 time frame for service. It might even be cancelled in 2009, forever ending any hope for Elk Grovian rail.
- California Diesel Emissions Standards -- They will be delayed sometime in 2009 due to these "tough economic times," pushed from beginning in 2010 to at least 2012.
- The Highway 50 HOV project will be ramrodded through a porous environmental review and construction will begin in 2009, same with the Lincoln Bypass project.
- The new EPA administrator will grant California the waiver request for AB32.
- Economy
- Housal Units -- Elk Grove will permit less than 500 new housal units in 2009, and every one of them will be located in an area not readily accessible by transit.
- The Dow -- The Dow will remain near or below 9,500 by Dec 31st.
- Inflation -- I don't see anything happening immediately, but I predict that towards the end of 2009 we will see the beginnings of a hyper-inflation period that will continue long after 2009. I don't truly expect a lengthy bout of deflation for 2009 because we've created so damn much money this last coupla weeks.
- Gold -- An ounce will command no less than $900 by the end of '09, especially if inflation occurs.
- Unemployment -- I predict a 9.8% average for 2009, plus or minus 0.2%.
- War -- Mr. O will not extract more than 50% of the current levels of troops in Iraq in 2009, try as he might. I predict that we will have in excess of 80,000 still there by Dec. 31st, and we will have more troops, not less, in Afghanistan.
I suppose my meme for ought nine is complacency. At this moment I'm not projecting a much worse "condition" than now...other than we will be yet one more year farther from true, meaningful progress on energy and our living environments. A complacent year overall, unlike 2008 which could be seen as a crisis year. What we'll need, in my opinion, to install correct energy/carbon pricing, to start creating better cities and towns, to start living as socially and environmentally responsible beings, is a few back to back years of crisis. I don't think we're there yet. We will have to work though our exceptional beliefs first, beliefs that we are all entitled to have 1080p TVs, two cars and one truck each, guaranteed pensions, 3400 square feet that grows in value at 20% ad infinitum, six hundred thousand more miles of freeways to holiday at Six Flags four times a year, and free limitless health care.
Again, I don't think we're there yet.
No comments:
Post a Comment