Here's my take. I understand it makes sense to run up deficits during recessions, with the expectation that we will run surpluses during the good times to make the long term somewhat balanced.
But we never did that. We ran massive deficits even during our finest hour, 2003-2006. Remember those years? Do you remember them fondly? Boy, we were on high, weren't we? Equities, housal unit values, and employment were all roaring along nicely. It's too bad we never understood it to be entirely hallucinated, a mirage.
Here's my take. Looking at the bottom of my blog to see today's national debt, I fully expect to see this increase at the current rate for at least the next two years, because I expect a Republican rout here in a few weeks on these mid-term elections. Our nation has no long term vision, the Democrats have had two years to solve the economic problem, didn't do it, so we're gonna flip the switch and give the ball to the other side for a while. All of which will ensure two or three years of guaranteed gridlock. It will be baked into the brownie, yearly deficits of 1,500,000 million for the next two or three years, guaranteed, because neither party will have the balls or the pull to wrest deficit spending from our government.
That said, today I forecast a national debt equal to 100% of GDP by the end of 2013.
There was never any real American prosperity. It was all hallucinated. That 20% of our economic value was based on the financing, lawyering, and insuring of a shrinking manufacturing base is about all you really need to know about our collective hallucination regarding our economy. We had a thirty year deficit financed binge yet we can't seem to handle twenty four months of a mild slowdown.
So we've had as much as we can stand, two years of economic hardship is too much to bear, so let's throw out the old bums for a set of new bums. Vote those Republicans in, they'll clean up Washington! Eliminate waste! Eliminate fraud! Lower taxes! Shrink big government! Cut spending! Tea Partier's unite!
I like to wax on our polarized political system as it really makes no never mind to me whoever is running our governments, and indeed I find it an enjoyable spectacle. I am very nearly out of personal debt and have access to everything I need or could possibly want because I didn't follow the same actions of the past thirty years of my city government, my county government, my state government, or my federal government -- I decreased my deficits during that time. Regardless of party, every level of government that represents me failed to do the same. Truthfully I have no vested interest in any outcome, not unless my third party starts winning. Fat chance.
So here's an early toast to 100% GDP debt!
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