Pee-On

I've been hesitant to check on the price of solar panels. Understandably so...if they drop in price I'll have been an idiot to install them, so ignorance is bliss.

The reason power plants weren't built in California between 1997 and 2001 was because there wasn't the all powerful market signal coming from the California ISO and Power Exchange telling power providers to do so. Too much uncertainty. Unknown future regulations/rules/tariffs/restrictions/covenants/market rules/fees/excise charges/surcharges. We had to create a crisis of supply, and then the classic overshoot of engaging in many high valued, excessive long term contracts were made to secure energy suppliers a future revenue stream for providing energy from future plants. And man, these were some of the most ridiculous financial arrangements ever dealt on behalf of the electric consumer, and I got to witness the whole fucking thing. I was telling everyone I knew how dumb it was to be signing these when energy prices were ten times their historical average, but I was just a Peon.

Fundamentally, no one will build a power plant if there isn't some degree of certainty going forward. However, that's exactly what I couldn't get, any future expectation, and it was the only way for me to have gonesolar. Again, I'm just a Peon.

I am a fan of subsidies, because without them, no one would even try solar. Manufacturers wouldn't build them, wouldn't refine their manufacturing processes or take risks in new developments, and the economics of scale would never apply. They are critical for all the emerging technologies. After they are somewhat self-delivering, they go on their own.

In my case I did get a big buydown, on the backs of both myself as a ratepayer and every other ratepayer. But if any argument is made that my own solar energy is produced on other people's capital, well, I am also the only one taking all the risk. If PV prices fall, or future energy doesn't grow as expensively as I project, well, I'm the one taking it for the team. And if I consume less, I get paid less for my energy. So I'm still the Peon. And the social benefit of clean local production is shared by all.

I decided yesterday to look up what Sharp NE165U1 panels cost. They are on average $52 more expensive than when I bought them in March of 2007. Times 12 is about six hundred bucks, or another $0.31 per DC watt. My guess is that freight is also quite a bit more due to diesel. For the time being, I'm not a Peon.