I saw on the news yesterday a few clips of protesting truckers...obviously concerned about ‘unreasonable’ diesel prices. I still can’t figure out why they haven’t been able to raise their prices to suppliers. Perhaps it’s a latency issue – big trucking firms can absorb volatile price swings better than independents – and the same with airlines. But a lower tide lowers all boats...
So here were a bunch of truckers in DC, loosely organized, honking and slowing down traffic. At least the slowing part might help; I think power/speed is non-linear. That is, it takes more than two times the diesel input to double the speed of a tractor trailer, so trucking efficiency is improved. That’s a good thing, isn’t it?
We are dealing with the slow death of the non-negotiable American way of life. And how do we approach it? We deny it, get mad at it, try to bargain with it, get depressed over it, then we accept it. I don’t see this as a short-term issue. I still think in the short term we well stabilize at $3.XX gas and unfettered growth will resume, but not in the long term.
Each of us are in a different stage. Right now, I’m well into the 5th stage. Truckers, apparently, are stuck in the second stage, and they will be there for a long time, yet...and it’s not going to get them anywhere in the long run. And we all know this...but they have to run through the stages like everyone else, so let them have some fun with being mad for a while. Drive 20mph on the freeway, block traffic, be rebels! Scofflaws! But, they will be driving that 20mph on $4.20 diesel. Stage 2 is also panning out elsewhere in the world...food riots, panic buying, one-rice-bag-limits...
But denial is still God – just look to our president. The candidates -- those three have to deny it or bargain to get elected, but they don’t really have anything to get mad about; shit, they personally could absorb 500% increases with smiles on their faces. So they move to offer summer gas tax holidays to bargain with the American people. It feels right, doesn’t it? It just feels right.
It’s odd that on one hand, the candidates all peddle energy independence, while on the other, trying to drive fuel prices lower to encourage more consumption. I have gotten over all this, and accepted that there will never be any coherent, organized national energy policy, because the existing arrangements cannot support such change, and so I accept it. Vote third party, ride the bike, take the bus, eat local organic, and work in the electric industry. I could absorb a 500% increase with a smile on my face.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Liability Through Markets
There came a point, some years ago, back in the California ISO's control room, where up behind the shift managers position someone put up, in separate letterings, the phrase "Reliability Through Markets."
The CAISO has been in existence for over a decade now. It's purpose was and is to operate the transmission system while facilitating a market based system for the delivery of electricity.
We could endlessly debate the effectiveness of such a system; does it work to support lower costs for ratepayers, does it provide open transmission access to all providers, yadda, yadda, yadda. Some say markets are the best approach, others suggest it's just another layer on top of what the traditional utilities already provided, etc.
I don't really know or frankly care about weather or how it is managing their mandate. What I am really opposed to is the new order of complexity the ISO has foisted upon the system of electric power delivery. Fortunately, I am no longer a part of it, trying to understand it myself and then defending it as necessary. It really is nothing more than a service industry, managing the transfer of a product produced and consumed elsewhere. And massively complex, convoluted, and costly to implement. Power delivery on a physical scale is fairly easy to operate and manage. On a financial scale, it's a beast, and getting worse by the year. Complex systems are prone to failure, IMO.
Working one day in the control room, the "R" in Reliability fell off. All that was needed was for the next letter "e" to fall off to paint the complete picture of what the ISO means to me.
The CAISO has been in existence for over a decade now. It's purpose was and is to operate the transmission system while facilitating a market based system for the delivery of electricity.
We could endlessly debate the effectiveness of such a system; does it work to support lower costs for ratepayers, does it provide open transmission access to all providers, yadda, yadda, yadda. Some say markets are the best approach, others suggest it's just another layer on top of what the traditional utilities already provided, etc.
I don't really know or frankly care about weather or how it is managing their mandate. What I am really opposed to is the new order of complexity the ISO has foisted upon the system of electric power delivery. Fortunately, I am no longer a part of it, trying to understand it myself and then defending it as necessary. It really is nothing more than a service industry, managing the transfer of a product produced and consumed elsewhere. And massively complex, convoluted, and costly to implement. Power delivery on a physical scale is fairly easy to operate and manage. On a financial scale, it's a beast, and getting worse by the year. Complex systems are prone to failure, IMO.
Working one day in the control room, the "R" in Reliability fell off. All that was needed was for the next letter "e" to fall off to paint the complete picture of what the ISO means to me.
Gas at Joe's
I do not think any of the three presumptive presidential candidates will steer us in any correct direction.
One of my very first blogs criticized anyone in the U.S. of A. who used the term Energy Independence. This is a fallacy. A pipe dream (whatever a pipe dream is...). Hogwash. Pure, Unadulterated, Balderdash.
Energy independence, if mandated by law tomorrow, would require the immediate reduction in oil consumption by 60%. And refined petroleum products by 15%. I do not have any idea on coal or natural gas imports, but I do believe the US imports LNG, so an immediate reduction here as well would be required.
Not gonna happen.
What a sight yesterday -- Obama at Joe's Junction gas station, where regular is an incredible, unbelievable, shocking THREE dollars and SIXTY-THREE cents a gallon...Outrageous! A Crime! Horrors! Here he was speaking on a podium declaring "Investing in Energy Independence...barrackobama.com"
Is this for real? Did I wake up this morning into another realm? In Middle Earth? What a meathead. And so are Hillary and John, both contemplating a reprieve of the federal gas tax between Memorial Day and Labor Day. These three can't get it. They may want to do the right thing, but political constraints prevent them from doing it. There is no way any of these three candidates can get up on a podium and dictate that their own and their constituents' hyperconsumptive lifestyles are the cause of such 'hardships' and that a wholesale shift in the non-negotiable American Lifestyle is what's likely going to be required.
This is the dilemma in American politics -- mention the hard, and you don't get elected. Speak of the easy -- that there is no sacrifice needed, and you'll get in. A sitting politician does not cater to their electorate, only to his/her contributors...most of whom are banking on things not changing. But during a primary, you have to cater to the electorate -- and to every flavor of electorate...older white women, young black men, gay urbanites, evangelical ruralites, white environmentalists, blue collar factory workers, retired pensioners, Iowan farmers, Southern Californian defense contractors, Northwestern dirt shrimp farmers. All people that consume gas. Thus...Hillary is more open to the gas tax holiday...so long as the lost revenues are made up by the Highway Trust Fund. So where is this make-up money going to come from, Ms. C? My Federal Taxes?
DO EVERYTING WE CAN TO EXCLUDE OUR OWN BEHAVIOR AS A CAUSE.
Doesn't this sound like an alcoholic? "High gas prices aren't because of my 68-mile round trip commute between Liberty Hill and Austin, it's because of those damn Arabians, oil companies, and the leftist environmentalists here that won't allow offshore or artic drilling." This guy gasses up at stations just like Joe's in Indiana. Bickering, but gassing up nonetheless.
One of my very first blogs criticized anyone in the U.S. of A. who used the term Energy Independence. This is a fallacy. A pipe dream (whatever a pipe dream is...). Hogwash. Pure, Unadulterated, Balderdash.
Energy independence, if mandated by law tomorrow, would require the immediate reduction in oil consumption by 60%. And refined petroleum products by 15%. I do not have any idea on coal or natural gas imports, but I do believe the US imports LNG, so an immediate reduction here as well would be required.
Not gonna happen.
What a sight yesterday -- Obama at Joe's Junction gas station, where regular is an incredible, unbelievable, shocking THREE dollars and SIXTY-THREE cents a gallon...Outrageous! A Crime! Horrors! Here he was speaking on a podium declaring "Investing in Energy Independence...barrackobama.com"
Is this for real? Did I wake up this morning into another realm? In Middle Earth? What a meathead. And so are Hillary and John, both contemplating a reprieve of the federal gas tax between Memorial Day and Labor Day. These three can't get it. They may want to do the right thing, but political constraints prevent them from doing it. There is no way any of these three candidates can get up on a podium and dictate that their own and their constituents' hyperconsumptive lifestyles are the cause of such 'hardships' and that a wholesale shift in the non-negotiable American Lifestyle is what's likely going to be required.
This is the dilemma in American politics -- mention the hard, and you don't get elected. Speak of the easy -- that there is no sacrifice needed, and you'll get in. A sitting politician does not cater to their electorate, only to his/her contributors...most of whom are banking on things not changing. But during a primary, you have to cater to the electorate -- and to every flavor of electorate...older white women, young black men, gay urbanites, evangelical ruralites, white environmentalists, blue collar factory workers, retired pensioners, Iowan farmers, Southern Californian defense contractors, Northwestern dirt shrimp farmers. All people that consume gas. Thus...Hillary is more open to the gas tax holiday...so long as the lost revenues are made up by the Highway Trust Fund. So where is this make-up money going to come from, Ms. C? My Federal Taxes?
DO EVERYTING WE CAN TO EXCLUDE OUR OWN BEHAVIOR AS A CAUSE.
Doesn't this sound like an alcoholic? "High gas prices aren't because of my 68-mile round trip commute between Liberty Hill and Austin, it's because of those damn Arabians, oil companies, and the leftist environmentalists here that won't allow offshore or artic drilling." This guy gasses up at stations just like Joe's in Indiana. Bickering, but gassing up nonetheless.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
SEER
Although unknown to his neighbors, my brother-in-law Marc has unbridled access to his condominium rooftop. Although I don't know, and am unsure about his personal habits...one would think that in his San Diego sun he could grow quite the killer homegrown stash.
But I digress. I was thinking about his and my sister's air conditioning unit. It's likely mounted on the rooftop, with the refrigerant line running from the roof down to his first story unit. I was wondering about the efficiency.
My house is on the precipice of a new cooling/heating system. Built in 1991, I have a few observations about my existing environmental "system". For years, we've dealt with summers of high temps upstairs, and a cool downstairs, and winters of hotter than hell upstairs, and freezing downstairs. And although I haven't calculated it, the largest portion of our home's energy usage is directly attributable to the heating/cooling needs. This is likely the same for any home in America.
I am blessed to work for SMUD. Last Thursday, I attended a presentation by a co-worker who detailed the specifics of his own home's energy usage before and after a massive investment in both energy efficient and comfort based improvements. A total EYE OPENER. EVERY issue that I have today, he had, and was able to rectify.
First -- the disparate temperature difference between rooms, as mentioned.
Second -- the long delay in getting hot water to the extremities of the house; the kitchen, and the upstairs.
Third -- Uneven room pressures when interior doors are closed.
Fourth -- High energy draw from the furnace fan.
Fifth -- Air infiltration.
Sixth -- Higher energy draw during the cooling season.
His was a 1998 SMUD advantage home (an example at the time of good efficiency) and was still able to justify $20,000 in improvements to make it both more comfortable and efficient. I am more than willing to do the same.
My 1991 home, built here in the tract-home wasteland of Elk Grove, was one of the first during the 18-year housing boom. It is closer to SACTOWN than most zip codes, where most jobs exist. But, the tract-home mentality of offering low home prices and not giving a shit about the long-term operating costs of a house were readily apparent. Several neighbors suffer from both leaking windows and leaking roofs, and I'm sure ALL of us suffer from the one-size-fits-all approach to HVAC. I personally had issue with an undersized electrical service panel, but outside of this, the issues I have are mainly creature comforts. And energy bills.
Such things might be commonplace. But I have a distinct feeling they don't have to be. Consider $20,000 on top of a $350,000 mortgage, for complete satisfaction and reduced energy bills. I am willing to try this. I spent a lot of money on solar panels to make a difference, and I thought I made decent improvements in personal energy consumption but I have a long way to go. And now I am armed with new information.
At 17 years old, and having sacrificed home improvements to pay off my mortgage, a shitload of replacements are needed in the next few years. A rundown of my home's infrastructure:
Fences -- all replaced last month. Good for the next 20 years.
Carpet -- original! And man, does it look like shit.
Water heater -- original.
HVAC -- all original.
Kitchen cabinets and countertops -- original, but likely we'll want better in 3-5 years.
Roof -- likely OK for the next 15 years.
Windows -- some mold, but overall acceptable.
Siding -- OK, I've kept up with caulking and painting maintenance.
Stucco -- just fine.
The big ticket items are the water heater and HVAC systems. And, while replacing them, I will spent the incremental difference and get a whole house evaluation and will fix all the things that need fixing to get our house to near zero energy usage from the grid. Mark my words...I will have a house that draws in the bottom 10% of all SMUD customers. I will achieve this both through personal consumption changes and through home efficiency measures.
But I digress. I was thinking about his and my sister's air conditioning unit. It's likely mounted on the rooftop, with the refrigerant line running from the roof down to his first story unit. I was wondering about the efficiency.
My house is on the precipice of a new cooling/heating system. Built in 1991, I have a few observations about my existing environmental "system". For years, we've dealt with summers of high temps upstairs, and a cool downstairs, and winters of hotter than hell upstairs, and freezing downstairs. And although I haven't calculated it, the largest portion of our home's energy usage is directly attributable to the heating/cooling needs. This is likely the same for any home in America.
I am blessed to work for SMUD. Last Thursday, I attended a presentation by a co-worker who detailed the specifics of his own home's energy usage before and after a massive investment in both energy efficient and comfort based improvements. A total EYE OPENER. EVERY issue that I have today, he had, and was able to rectify.
First -- the disparate temperature difference between rooms, as mentioned.
Second -- the long delay in getting hot water to the extremities of the house; the kitchen, and the upstairs.
Third -- Uneven room pressures when interior doors are closed.
Fourth -- High energy draw from the furnace fan.
Fifth -- Air infiltration.
Sixth -- Higher energy draw during the cooling season.
His was a 1998 SMUD advantage home (an example at the time of good efficiency) and was still able to justify $20,000 in improvements to make it both more comfortable and efficient. I am more than willing to do the same.
My 1991 home, built here in the tract-home wasteland of Elk Grove, was one of the first during the 18-year housing boom. It is closer to SACTOWN than most zip codes, where most jobs exist. But, the tract-home mentality of offering low home prices and not giving a shit about the long-term operating costs of a house were readily apparent. Several neighbors suffer from both leaking windows and leaking roofs, and I'm sure ALL of us suffer from the one-size-fits-all approach to HVAC. I personally had issue with an undersized electrical service panel, but outside of this, the issues I have are mainly creature comforts. And energy bills.
Such things might be commonplace. But I have a distinct feeling they don't have to be. Consider $20,000 on top of a $350,000 mortgage, for complete satisfaction and reduced energy bills. I am willing to try this. I spent a lot of money on solar panels to make a difference, and I thought I made decent improvements in personal energy consumption but I have a long way to go. And now I am armed with new information.
At 17 years old, and having sacrificed home improvements to pay off my mortgage, a shitload of replacements are needed in the next few years. A rundown of my home's infrastructure:
Fences -- all replaced last month. Good for the next 20 years.
Carpet -- original! And man, does it look like shit.
Water heater -- original.
HVAC -- all original.
Kitchen cabinets and countertops -- original, but likely we'll want better in 3-5 years.
Roof -- likely OK for the next 15 years.
Windows -- some mold, but overall acceptable.
Siding -- OK, I've kept up with caulking and painting maintenance.
Stucco -- just fine.
The big ticket items are the water heater and HVAC systems. And, while replacing them, I will spent the incremental difference and get a whole house evaluation and will fix all the things that need fixing to get our house to near zero energy usage from the grid. Mark my words...I will have a house that draws in the bottom 10% of all SMUD customers. I will achieve this both through personal consumption changes and through home efficiency measures.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Baba Sue
In 2 years time, we will all be driving battery powered hybrids here and there, biodiesel powered tractor trailers, and flying biofueled 777s. I suppose personal modes of transportation will be the first to change; moving a 100 kg person is much easier on battery power than fence posts on a flatbed truck.
Virgin flew a ‘biofueled’ 747-400, what, about three months back, with great fanfare. The hope is that soon they’ll be able to run their entire Boeing fleet on a 50/50 mix of melted hog fat and used french fry oil. Nice!
What wasn’t said was that the plane actually ran on 80% Jet A. The 20% that was bio based was a mix of coconut and babassu oils. And, as I understand it, only one engine of the four on that jet was fed this concoction. So we’re looking at a 95/5 mix.
It takes no great leap to realize that these oils are nowhere to be found in the natural setting anywhere between London and Amsterdam (the flight route), or anywhere in the US for that matter. Babassu is being widely used as a substitute for coconut oil and grows today in the Amazon. So, the next strip of Brazil to be razed will be to build a runway to get our countries’ engineers and agribusiness professionals in to assist the local inhabitants in tearing down their forests for massive oil plantations to ship to the US to assuage our green guilt -- all to power 5% of our aircraft engines.
I wonder what it'd take to reverse that ratio, say 5/95. What about wind power? A renewable resource at 600 mph! A plane creates its own wind – so install a 5th turbine whose prime mover is the wind, powering a generator that can be used to run the onboard electrics, AC systems, and in-flight movies. Lots of fuselage skin surface could also support nanosolar cells; use them to power a battery system to ensure there's sufficient speed to keep the wind turbine running. Use palm oils sparingly, only to supplement the other two systems during hard acceleration and braking.
"FAA to announce today that it will clear Virgin Atlantic to resume flights to the ocean floor."
Virgin flew a ‘biofueled’ 747-400, what, about three months back, with great fanfare. The hope is that soon they’ll be able to run their entire Boeing fleet on a 50/50 mix of melted hog fat and used french fry oil. Nice!
What wasn’t said was that the plane actually ran on 80% Jet A. The 20% that was bio based was a mix of coconut and babassu oils. And, as I understand it, only one engine of the four on that jet was fed this concoction. So we’re looking at a 95/5 mix.
It takes no great leap to realize that these oils are nowhere to be found in the natural setting anywhere between London and Amsterdam (the flight route), or anywhere in the US for that matter. Babassu is being widely used as a substitute for coconut oil and grows today in the Amazon. So, the next strip of Brazil to be razed will be to build a runway to get our countries’ engineers and agribusiness professionals in to assist the local inhabitants in tearing down their forests for massive oil plantations to ship to the US to assuage our green guilt -- all to power 5% of our aircraft engines.
I wonder what it'd take to reverse that ratio, say 5/95. What about wind power? A renewable resource at 600 mph! A plane creates its own wind – so install a 5th turbine whose prime mover is the wind, powering a generator that can be used to run the onboard electrics, AC systems, and in-flight movies. Lots of fuselage skin surface could also support nanosolar cells; use them to power a battery system to ensure there's sufficient speed to keep the wind turbine running. Use palm oils sparingly, only to supplement the other two systems during hard acceleration and braking.
"FAA to announce today that it will clear Virgin Atlantic to resume flights to the ocean floor."
Sunday, April 20, 2008
The Mother Ship
Over the past several months I've been a daily witness to the construction of yet another compound of personal storage pods. And, you guessed it...it's on Franklin Boulevard!
The brand new Extra Space Storage is a wrist rocket shot away from the long established Public Storage compound; both of which are within range of a seasoned longbowman to 49th Avenue Self Storage; which is less than a grenade launcher's range to the Mother Ship, Security Public Storage. I failed to mention National Self Storage because technically you can't see it while biking up and down Franklin Blvd; but it's less than a mile away from the Mother Ship.
The mother ship -- I watched her land about a year and a half ago. She overtook her host with deadly efficiency, a former supermarket that anchored a strip mall near Florin Road. There used to be a black owned BBQ place (which was pretty damn good, by the way) which won Best Actor in a Supporting Role. The other roles were held by other such stores selling Asian knickknacks, a T-shirt store, and other trappings of Asian American oriented consumerism. But when she suffocated the store, her tentacles enveloped all the other stores in the strip mall, and now are slowly tightening.
Actually, how would I know? I have never once checked into any of those ancillary stores to find out. But surely their businesses were counting on an anchor who would keep volume driving by slowly over the speed bumps and perhaps some of them would stop in. Not too many people nowadays come in and out of the Security bunker. And it is a bunker; all indoors, likely climate controlled, and you can now drive in and unload your stuff even when it's raining! The Motherbunker.
I have asked nearly everyone I know, "Have you noticed the explosion in personal storage places?" and no one seems to have noticed. They are everywhere. They fit into odd sized, vacant dirt on the fringes of other businesses, on the margins, backed up against freeways and railroads, and some are even two stories now to reduce their footprints in more dense suburbs. And I further ask "Do you have anything in one of these?" and the answer I always get is "No."
So who the hell is renting them and what the hell is being stored? -- not only do we not want to live without our stuff, we don't want to live with it either. So into the compound it goes, and the first months rent is free! Free! Doesn't cost you nothin'! My friend Mark at the CAISO once told me he rented one during a move, and had it rented so long that the cost of the unit far exceeded the value of the contents. So many are abandoned. My Father-in-Law lived out his retirement bidding on these bins sight unseen, to sell the contents at flea markets. Indeed...my 12 year old lawnmower was a former incarcerated member of one of these compounds.
This is one more symptom of our hyperconsumerism -- 1.875 billion square feet of storage space (four square feet per US resident), in 2005 -- and there have been thousands more added in the last three years, just like the two on Franklin Blvd. My guess -- they are being rented by all those who walked away from their mortgages to store their stuff so that in about three years, when their credit scores are back up and home sales are up and the economy is back up and their incomes are back up, they will buy another house and fill to the rafters with the regurgitated contents of the Mother Ship's rumen.
The brand new Extra Space Storage is a wrist rocket shot away from the long established Public Storage compound; both of which are within range of a seasoned longbowman to 49th Avenue Self Storage; which is less than a grenade launcher's range to the Mother Ship, Security Public Storage. I failed to mention National Self Storage because technically you can't see it while biking up and down Franklin Blvd; but it's less than a mile away from the Mother Ship.
The mother ship -- I watched her land about a year and a half ago. She overtook her host with deadly efficiency, a former supermarket that anchored a strip mall near Florin Road. There used to be a black owned BBQ place (which was pretty damn good, by the way) which won Best Actor in a Supporting Role. The other roles were held by other such stores selling Asian knickknacks, a T-shirt store, and other trappings of Asian American oriented consumerism. But when she suffocated the store, her tentacles enveloped all the other stores in the strip mall, and now are slowly tightening.
Actually, how would I know? I have never once checked into any of those ancillary stores to find out. But surely their businesses were counting on an anchor who would keep volume driving by slowly over the speed bumps and perhaps some of them would stop in. Not too many people nowadays come in and out of the Security bunker. And it is a bunker; all indoors, likely climate controlled, and you can now drive in and unload your stuff even when it's raining! The Motherbunker.
I have asked nearly everyone I know, "Have you noticed the explosion in personal storage places?" and no one seems to have noticed. They are everywhere. They fit into odd sized, vacant dirt on the fringes of other businesses, on the margins, backed up against freeways and railroads, and some are even two stories now to reduce their footprints in more dense suburbs. And I further ask "Do you have anything in one of these?" and the answer I always get is "No."
So who the hell is renting them and what the hell is being stored? -- not only do we not want to live without our stuff, we don't want to live with it either. So into the compound it goes, and the first months rent is free! Free! Doesn't cost you nothin'! My friend Mark at the CAISO once told me he rented one during a move, and had it rented so long that the cost of the unit far exceeded the value of the contents. So many are abandoned. My Father-in-Law lived out his retirement bidding on these bins sight unseen, to sell the contents at flea markets. Indeed...my 12 year old lawnmower was a former incarcerated member of one of these compounds.
This is one more symptom of our hyperconsumerism -- 1.875 billion square feet of storage space (four square feet per US resident), in 2005 -- and there have been thousands more added in the last three years, just like the two on Franklin Blvd. My guess -- they are being rented by all those who walked away from their mortgages to store their stuff so that in about three years, when their credit scores are back up and home sales are up and the economy is back up and their incomes are back up, they will buy another house and fill to the rafters with the regurgitated contents of the Mother Ship's rumen.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Expand Mass Transit!
With traffic and energy prices worsening, now is the time to shift to affordable public transportation. Fortunately, Americans like me have finally recognized the need for everyone else to do exactly that.
Expanding mass transit isn't just a good idea, it's a necessity. Driving from Elk Grove to Sacramento at 7:45 in the morning, sometimes I sit in traffic for upwards of one hour to get to work. It's about time somebody did something to get some of these other cars off the road. I'd bet that expanded bus service from Elk Grove would cut 10-15 minutes off my morning commute drive time.
On days I don't drive, my other slogan on the back of my bike shirt would read "Take the Bus...I'll be Glad You Did." I've seen a lot of other people on the bus these days...it's not your daddy's transit system anymore. It isn't just a means for some poor sucker to get to work...he should also be using it to drive to the laundrymat, the market, and the mall.
Expanding mass transit isn't just a good idea, it's a necessity. Driving from Elk Grove to Sacramento at 7:45 in the morning, sometimes I sit in traffic for upwards of one hour to get to work. It's about time somebody did something to get some of these other cars off the road. I'd bet that expanded bus service from Elk Grove would cut 10-15 minutes off my morning commute drive time.
On days I don't drive, my other slogan on the back of my bike shirt would read "Take the Bus...I'll be Glad You Did." I've seen a lot of other people on the bus these days...it's not your daddy's transit system anymore. It isn't just a means for some poor sucker to get to work...he should also be using it to drive to the laundrymat, the market, and the mall.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Peruvian Black Gold
Great News! Peru just announced the discovery of 1.132 billion barrels of provable oil reserves, lying in wait off their coast.
Man, and it couldn't come at a better time, what with the crazy, crazy cost of gas we have!
So let's see...1.132 billion is 1,132,000,000 barrels. The world burns 84 milllion barrels a day, or 84,000,000. All of Peru's oil would last about 13 and a half days.
Man, and it couldn't come at a better time, what with the crazy, crazy cost of gas we have!
So let's see...1.132 billion is 1,132,000,000 barrels. The world burns 84 milllion barrels a day, or 84,000,000. All of Peru's oil would last about 13 and a half days.
Gas Up the Pacer
So...McCain suggested today a reprive from the federal gas tax. Like Little Johnny said about his sister getting knocked up, "That's beautiful. Just fucking beautiful."
For the summer driving season, no less! Not at any other time of the year, mind you, when 80% of all the supposed real work is performed with oil...but the summer! When we vacation! Give the common man a break on his vacation season! I'd bet that 92% of the US population would agree with this tax break. Do whatever is needed to mask the inevitable: that oil production has plateaued and our consumption has exceeded our own domestic production since 1970 and has increased year over year since.
Why, exactly, should we be reducing any taxes when our national budget is unbalanced? And is there any more just cause than taxation on oil? A largely imported, limited, non-renewable resource?
I suppose one could argue that it's government spending that should be reduced, not taxes. OK. Eliminate the $12 billion a month on an ignored war, use that to subsidize the 11.5 billion gallons of gas the U.S. uses every month, so we get about a dollar reduction per gallon. Gas becomes $2.80, and people will still bitch about the price!
What about redefining the gallon? If we redefine the gallon as now being equal to one quart, we could immediately see a 75% reduction in the price of fuel overnight. Overnight. Or how about a pint? The gallon is now, overnight, re-defined as a pint! An 87.5% reduction in price!
Now wouldn't that be good for the economy? I've seen gas stations in the Sacramento region stuck on $3.79, $3.89, & $3.99 for a week now -- damn! They just can't cross over that psychological $4 barrier. So take whatever losses are necessary, jack up the price of Doritos and other sundries sold at gas stations, but don't raise gas over four bucks. But imagine their sales if gas was $2.79! And how we would all re-consider that summertime trip to Pittsburg or Orlando. Or -- imagine if at a new gallon-is-a-pint standard, now $0.47 a gallon! Gas up the Pacer, we're goin' to Disney World!
For the summer driving season, no less! Not at any other time of the year, mind you, when 80% of all the supposed real work is performed with oil...but the summer! When we vacation! Give the common man a break on his vacation season! I'd bet that 92% of the US population would agree with this tax break. Do whatever is needed to mask the inevitable: that oil production has plateaued and our consumption has exceeded our own domestic production since 1970 and has increased year over year since.
Why, exactly, should we be reducing any taxes when our national budget is unbalanced? And is there any more just cause than taxation on oil? A largely imported, limited, non-renewable resource?
I suppose one could argue that it's government spending that should be reduced, not taxes. OK. Eliminate the $12 billion a month on an ignored war, use that to subsidize the 11.5 billion gallons of gas the U.S. uses every month, so we get about a dollar reduction per gallon. Gas becomes $2.80, and people will still bitch about the price!
What about redefining the gallon? If we redefine the gallon as now being equal to one quart, we could immediately see a 75% reduction in the price of fuel overnight. Overnight. Or how about a pint? The gallon is now, overnight, re-defined as a pint! An 87.5% reduction in price!
Now wouldn't that be good for the economy? I've seen gas stations in the Sacramento region stuck on $3.79, $3.89, & $3.99 for a week now -- damn! They just can't cross over that psychological $4 barrier. So take whatever losses are necessary, jack up the price of Doritos and other sundries sold at gas stations, but don't raise gas over four bucks. But imagine their sales if gas was $2.79! And how we would all re-consider that summertime trip to Pittsburg or Orlando. Or -- imagine if at a new gallon-is-a-pint standard, now $0.47 a gallon! Gas up the Pacer, we're goin' to Disney World!
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Jesus, Take the Wheel
In San Francisco they ride the Critical Mass once a month, a bike-ride-protest where via a headless leader they disseminate when and where beforehand, and hundreds if not thousands of riders hog-tie the streets. I've never seen it or rode in one.
But I do know they cork, so they don't follow the rules of the road, and that's more a less a form of protest. Against what? San Franciscans have a long history of such things so I suppose you can argue they protest against anything...lack of bicycling infrastructure, excess dependence on cars and foreign oil, gay rights on bikes, whatever.
So I though of what the back of my shirt would say if I were a riding political billboard, up and down Franklin Blvd, trying to show every car, truck, and SUV driver how politically active I am, how I'm the only one making a difference, and how righteous I am being the only green human being within a 2-mile radius. God, if only the world were made up of more people like me...
So I'd wear: No Soldiers Died to Fuel this Bike. And I'd bet I'd increase my odds of getting hit 10 fold.
But my favorite is this politically correct gem:
Not appropriate for the back of a shirt biker, but this tells the whole story of the last 7 years, doesn't it? Christian nation invades Islamic soil for the wealth underneath it, so that they may continue to drive unabated to their theme parks and casinos from their starter mansions in the country. Well, not in the country actually, but not in the city either. The suburbs, which aren't either. They are in noplace.
So do you think Jesus would drive a 1984 Plymouth Horizon with a broken crank-down passenger window, a hole in the dash where the cassette player used to be and no power brakes...or the re-designed '09 H2? What would the King of the Jews choose?
I find this an intriguing question...because on my daily bike ride I ride down Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd past Christian Brothers High School -- "Enter to Learn, Leave to Serve." And there is no finer example of conspicuous wealth and conspicuous consumption than these people, dropping off their kids at 7:20AM in their SUVs, a whole lot of them. My observation: The smaller the Chrisitan woman, the larger the SUV she drives, aka the Excursions and the Armadas.
Facinating to note that MLJ Jr. Blvd. runs right through Oak Park, about as depressed a neighborhood as you'll find in Sacramento. Here come all the white christians dropping off their children in the middle of a black and hispanic dominated part of town.
Now to their credit, they don't put on the bling -- rarely do you see the low profile tires and $4500 rims and the thumpin' sound system. (What would Days of Elijah sound like amped to 11 on the 4-12 woofers?) But there they sit idling on the clogged road at drop-off and pick-up time, because they can't let their children walk down the street. Too dangerous. Certainly, they live nowhere near the school. Driving is the only option. And the environment be damned. And the environment be damned.
And, and! Pulling out of the curb cut to get back on the road, at 7:45 AM they are in such a hurry they have on several occasions failed to yield to me on the bike. One of two accidents I've had occurred right there. "Jesus, take the wheel..." Isn't the bible's mandate to "multiply and fill the earth and subdue it" starkly evident here?
Ok, so I'm not being fair to Christians. To be fair...the accident was minor. She only dented my rear pannier frame. And she looked at me like someone just asked her to spell chrysanthemum -- she thought it was all my fault, she pulled right out without looking -- and then drove off without acknowledging the accident! What a bitch!
Regardless of how I present my observations (with bad faith, I know), they are truthful nonetheless. I will further modify my previous observation about environmentalism being the sole domain of whites -- it should read secular humanist whites.
So Jesus wouldn't be an environmentalist and he wouldn't wear hand-fashioned hemp sandals. He'd drive an SUV, like all in his dominion on MLJ Jr Blvd do.
But I do know they cork, so they don't follow the rules of the road, and that's more a less a form of protest. Against what? San Franciscans have a long history of such things so I suppose you can argue they protest against anything...lack of bicycling infrastructure, excess dependence on cars and foreign oil, gay rights on bikes, whatever.
So I though of what the back of my shirt would say if I were a riding political billboard, up and down Franklin Blvd, trying to show every car, truck, and SUV driver how politically active I am, how I'm the only one making a difference, and how righteous I am being the only green human being within a 2-mile radius. God, if only the world were made up of more people like me...
So I'd wear: No Soldiers Died to Fuel this Bike. And I'd bet I'd increase my odds of getting hit 10 fold.
But my favorite is this politically correct gem:
Not appropriate for the back of a shirt biker, but this tells the whole story of the last 7 years, doesn't it? Christian nation invades Islamic soil for the wealth underneath it, so that they may continue to drive unabated to their theme parks and casinos from their starter mansions in the country. Well, not in the country actually, but not in the city either. The suburbs, which aren't either. They are in noplace.
So do you think Jesus would drive a 1984 Plymouth Horizon with a broken crank-down passenger window, a hole in the dash where the cassette player used to be and no power brakes...or the re-designed '09 H2? What would the King of the Jews choose?
I find this an intriguing question...because on my daily bike ride I ride down Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd past Christian Brothers High School -- "Enter to Learn, Leave to Serve." And there is no finer example of conspicuous wealth and conspicuous consumption than these people, dropping off their kids at 7:20AM in their SUVs, a whole lot of them. My observation: The smaller the Chrisitan woman, the larger the SUV she drives, aka the Excursions and the Armadas.
Facinating to note that MLJ Jr. Blvd. runs right through Oak Park, about as depressed a neighborhood as you'll find in Sacramento. Here come all the white christians dropping off their children in the middle of a black and hispanic dominated part of town.
Now to their credit, they don't put on the bling -- rarely do you see the low profile tires and $4500 rims and the thumpin' sound system. (What would Days of Elijah sound like amped to 11 on the 4-12 woofers?) But there they sit idling on the clogged road at drop-off and pick-up time, because they can't let their children walk down the street. Too dangerous. Certainly, they live nowhere near the school. Driving is the only option. And the environment be damned. And the environment be damned.
And, and! Pulling out of the curb cut to get back on the road, at 7:45 AM they are in such a hurry they have on several occasions failed to yield to me on the bike. One of two accidents I've had occurred right there. "Jesus, take the wheel..." Isn't the bible's mandate to "multiply and fill the earth and subdue it" starkly evident here?
Ok, so I'm not being fair to Christians. To be fair...the accident was minor. She only dented my rear pannier frame. And she looked at me like someone just asked her to spell chrysanthemum -- she thought it was all my fault, she pulled right out without looking -- and then drove off without acknowledging the accident! What a bitch!
Regardless of how I present my observations (with bad faith, I know), they are truthful nonetheless. I will further modify my previous observation about environmentalism being the sole domain of whites -- it should read secular humanist whites.
So Jesus wouldn't be an environmentalist and he wouldn't wear hand-fashioned hemp sandals. He'd drive an SUV, like all in his dominion on MLJ Jr Blvd do.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Nothing of Value
I saw something the other day that my dad mentioned he saw several years ago at Grandma's old house. A homeowner pulled out of her garage while the landscaping professionals were tending to her front lawn, and as near as I could tell, she didn't engage them. Didn't acknowledge them whatsoever. Just drove off, and that was that.
I was thinking how utterly lacking the Elk Grove community really is, and how it is likely the same in every suburban environment in every corner of the US. Most people on my street remotely open the garage door, drive in and close it, and that's the entire exchange of human interaction they will have with their neighbors that week -- zero. On my street, if say a high angled meteor came down and destroyed everyone else's house but this woman's, she would likely shrug and drive past the rubble into her garage and that would be that.
Would any part of her life change? No. She has no need for neighbors. They provide nothing of value. They don't count on her for anything, and she doesn't count on them. I would bet lunch that if she needed a half cup of vegetable oil, she'd sooner take the 4.5 mile round trip drive to the nearest store than ask a neighbor. If her next door neighbor happened to work at that same store (not likely at all) he'd still provide nothing of value. Only the store does, and the unknown people who service it and make food show up on the freezers and shelves.
This is my observation. I have lived in a suburban environment my entire life, and I really don't know what it would be like to live in a place where my skills have a direct impact on a neighbor, and vice versa. I would like to know -- but I doubt I ever will. Even as gas moves up and up, she'll still drive to the store for oil.
I was thinking how utterly lacking the Elk Grove community really is, and how it is likely the same in every suburban environment in every corner of the US. Most people on my street remotely open the garage door, drive in and close it, and that's the entire exchange of human interaction they will have with their neighbors that week -- zero. On my street, if say a high angled meteor came down and destroyed everyone else's house but this woman's, she would likely shrug and drive past the rubble into her garage and that would be that.
Would any part of her life change? No. She has no need for neighbors. They provide nothing of value. They don't count on her for anything, and she doesn't count on them. I would bet lunch that if she needed a half cup of vegetable oil, she'd sooner take the 4.5 mile round trip drive to the nearest store than ask a neighbor. If her next door neighbor happened to work at that same store (not likely at all) he'd still provide nothing of value. Only the store does, and the unknown people who service it and make food show up on the freezers and shelves.
This is my observation. I have lived in a suburban environment my entire life, and I really don't know what it would be like to live in a place where my skills have a direct impact on a neighbor, and vice versa. I would like to know -- but I doubt I ever will. Even as gas moves up and up, she'll still drive to the store for oil.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Abbey Normal
"The independent trucker doesn't have anybody on their side to help them recover costs," says Larry Daniel, president of America's Independent Truckers' Association, which is also advocating a mandated fuel surcharge. "As much as I hate government intervention under normal conditions, these are not normal conditions." A quote from an article I read this morning.
These aren't normal conditions? What would normal be? $3.95?
I very clearly remember biking to work in the winter of '04. Elk Grove had been approving the building of 5,000+ homes a year (the peak rate in May of '04 was 553 issued permits). And every one of them came with two wage earners to afford it and 1.8 commuters to other regions to work. I was on Franklin Blvd. (this blog should be called the Franklin Monologues), and traffic was at a stall, and in this one section of road I passed 20 SUVs in succession. Twenty. I remember very clearly the faces of the people in this jam -- my age (30-ish), single drivers, not terribly frustrated by the traffic but looking around, looking at me...kinda like this blog, just sorta wandering. And gas was cheap. I don't remember what it was, but it was as cheap as it had been since 2000, and it was as cheap as it has ever been since.
That was normal.
And everyone stacked at that traffic light burned it at twice the rate we were burning it two decades earlier. Right then, I knew this was not going to continue for much longer. I was really surprised the party lasted another two and a half years. I peg my own peak realization somewhere in 2003. If we had stopped the madness back then, I suppose we'd be in far better shape now.
We had gone to war 8 months earlier ostensibly to establish a police presence in the largest oil region of the world. Not one person made the connection between our behavior overseas and our behavior at home.
And we still aren't!
The quote above suggests normalcy should be $2.50 diesel, and that we now need to further subsidize it and further externalize the costs to keep independent truckers driving.
Fuck that, and fuck them. Another quote in that same article: "The reason it's such a big issue isn't that the price is $3.50 or $4, but that it went up so quickly," says Peter Swan, a professor of logistics and operations management at Pennsylvania State University in Harrisburg.
So the problem is not $4, it's the fast increase! Americans are insanely stupid. Now this is normal.
These aren't normal conditions? What would normal be? $3.95?
I very clearly remember biking to work in the winter of '04. Elk Grove had been approving the building of 5,000+ homes a year (the peak rate in May of '04 was 553 issued permits). And every one of them came with two wage earners to afford it and 1.8 commuters to other regions to work. I was on Franklin Blvd. (this blog should be called the Franklin Monologues), and traffic was at a stall, and in this one section of road I passed 20 SUVs in succession. Twenty. I remember very clearly the faces of the people in this jam -- my age (30-ish), single drivers, not terribly frustrated by the traffic but looking around, looking at me...kinda like this blog, just sorta wandering. And gas was cheap. I don't remember what it was, but it was as cheap as it had been since 2000, and it was as cheap as it has ever been since.
That was normal.
And everyone stacked at that traffic light burned it at twice the rate we were burning it two decades earlier. Right then, I knew this was not going to continue for much longer. I was really surprised the party lasted another two and a half years. I peg my own peak realization somewhere in 2003. If we had stopped the madness back then, I suppose we'd be in far better shape now.
We had gone to war 8 months earlier ostensibly to establish a police presence in the largest oil region of the world. Not one person made the connection between our behavior overseas and our behavior at home.
And we still aren't!
The quote above suggests normalcy should be $2.50 diesel, and that we now need to further subsidize it and further externalize the costs to keep independent truckers driving.
Fuck that, and fuck them. Another quote in that same article: "The reason it's such a big issue isn't that the price is $3.50 or $4, but that it went up so quickly," says Peter Swan, a professor of logistics and operations management at Pennsylvania State University in Harrisburg.
So the problem is not $4, it's the fast increase! Americans are insanely stupid. Now this is normal.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
S.M.O.G.
The Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District was forced to request our region be designated from serious to severe because we cannot meet federal deadlines for cleaning up our air by 2013 under the less stringent serious designation.
These are EPA deadlines, the same federal agency that for two years stalled and whose administrator recently denied California’s waiver request for implementing AB32.
This bill, although focused more on greenhouse gases than smog forming pollutants, mandates stronger and earlier pollution controls from mobile sources, beginning this year. Now we must wait until 2012 until weaker federal legislation mandating higher vehicle fuel efficiency begins.
Four more years for a less effective solution does not sound like health and environmental interests are the EPAs highest priority.
So on one hand we cannot meet EPA deadlines, while on the other we have to fight EPA in court to allow us to implement policies that may help meet them.
SMAQMD documents also show that by 2019 certain areas may still not meet air quality standards, no doubt in part due to EPAs horseshit decision. More recently, EPA ruled that the ozone standards ought be tightened. For this I do commend EPA-- but we don't enforce them! We already cannot meet the damn standards and now they are tougher.
In one stroke of his pen in denying the CA waiver request, the EPA administrator forced me out of the Republican party forever. And it's probably just more than a lost single vote -- because now I've taken an interest in seeing that their party crash and burn. This won't take a whole lot of effort in '08 methinks; they've more or less evicerated themselves on their own.
These are EPA deadlines, the same federal agency that for two years stalled and whose administrator recently denied California’s waiver request for implementing AB32.
This bill, although focused more on greenhouse gases than smog forming pollutants, mandates stronger and earlier pollution controls from mobile sources, beginning this year. Now we must wait until 2012 until weaker federal legislation mandating higher vehicle fuel efficiency begins.
Four more years for a less effective solution does not sound like health and environmental interests are the EPAs highest priority.
So on one hand we cannot meet EPA deadlines, while on the other we have to fight EPA in court to allow us to implement policies that may help meet them.
SMAQMD documents also show that by 2019 certain areas may still not meet air quality standards, no doubt in part due to EPAs horseshit decision. More recently, EPA ruled that the ozone standards ought be tightened. For this I do commend EPA-- but we don't enforce them! We already cannot meet the damn standards and now they are tougher.
In one stroke of his pen in denying the CA waiver request, the EPA administrator forced me out of the Republican party forever. And it's probably just more than a lost single vote -- because now I've taken an interest in seeing that their party crash and burn. This won't take a whole lot of effort in '08 methinks; they've more or less evicerated themselves on their own.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Losers and Winners
A while back I developed my idea of American culture. I think of the unique American form of democracy, and unbridled consumption. That's it. Not cowboys or baseball, or anything else. Those two things are really just media for consumption -- Cowboys drive dualies between 2,000 hectare ranches nowadays to feed an already overfed nation, and baseball players are paid millions and live in large nurseries. Can you guess I'm not too keen on 50% of who we are?
The other half, well, we do have representative democracy. And while I might have a few gripes about it, overall, when I look around and see how many really fucked up other places there are in the world, I do have a great respect for that institution. But I worry that unbridled consumption will infect it, too.
As a penultimate optimist, your author is sure the tanking US dollar and rising energy prices are boons for quite a few Americans. Not all people suffer from these supposed drains on the economy. What it is is a drain on our own internal consumptive patterns. Exporting consumption to other nations, well, that's where we really shine with a falling dollar. We were so good at it for so long, we've now become 'concerned' about Chinese and Indian 'usage' and depleting or jacking up the price of steel, palladium, oil, and gorilla testicles. Pretty soon, there won't be any of those things left.
But who among us benefits from a flattening dollar and high oil? I say plenty. Although some can no longer cheaply afford their daily 43 mile commute to downtown Atlanta and buy $4 lattes every morning, there are winners:
In 1994, when the yen rose against the dollar, Eastman Kodak likely made a killing. Just before the digital camera age.
LBS -- Local Bike Shops. More tires, helmets, and spandex sold as gas rises. Although the cost of importing these items from China has gone up...the bike shop proprietor wins.
Colorado horsemen, exporting horsemeat to Europe. They've likely seen a handsome increase in revenues.
Hyundai car salesmen. Although there's less profit margin on small vehicles, they are selling more of them. The consumer is passed on the increased cost of importing the cars from Korea...but the salesmen win.
NYMEX commodities traders. They've really won.
San Francisco callgirls. And callboys. All that increased Asian tourism has really perked up business.
Get into one of these career opportunities if you've been furloughed as a mortgage underwriter. You'll be glad you did.
The other half, well, we do have representative democracy. And while I might have a few gripes about it, overall, when I look around and see how many really fucked up other places there are in the world, I do have a great respect for that institution. But I worry that unbridled consumption will infect it, too.
As a penultimate optimist, your author is sure the tanking US dollar and rising energy prices are boons for quite a few Americans. Not all people suffer from these supposed drains on the economy. What it is is a drain on our own internal consumptive patterns. Exporting consumption to other nations, well, that's where we really shine with a falling dollar. We were so good at it for so long, we've now become 'concerned' about Chinese and Indian 'usage' and depleting or jacking up the price of steel, palladium, oil, and gorilla testicles. Pretty soon, there won't be any of those things left.
But who among us benefits from a flattening dollar and high oil? I say plenty. Although some can no longer cheaply afford their daily 43 mile commute to downtown Atlanta and buy $4 lattes every morning, there are winners:
In 1994, when the yen rose against the dollar, Eastman Kodak likely made a killing. Just before the digital camera age.
LBS -- Local Bike Shops. More tires, helmets, and spandex sold as gas rises. Although the cost of importing these items from China has gone up...the bike shop proprietor wins.
Colorado horsemen, exporting horsemeat to Europe. They've likely seen a handsome increase in revenues.
Hyundai car salesmen. Although there's less profit margin on small vehicles, they are selling more of them. The consumer is passed on the increased cost of importing the cars from Korea...but the salesmen win.
NYMEX commodities traders. They've really won.
San Francisco callgirls. And callboys. All that increased Asian tourism has really perked up business.
Get into one of these career opportunities if you've been furloughed as a mortgage underwriter. You'll be glad you did.
When Did You Get Your DUI?
I have never seen as many people on bikes this morning. Amazing. I left a little later than usual, traffic was unusually light for a Wednesday, and I must have seen/passed 15 people. A 300% increase over the norm.
And not just the "So When Did You Get Your DUI?" bicyclists, or the crystal-meth addicts, but people actually commuting! Most well-to-do people who ride bikes do ride everywhere: the $2200 machines, on top of their Jettas, jetting up to Howell Mountain Road, out to Sonoma & Wine Country, meandering about Valley Springs, Ione, or Sutter Creek. Riding everywhere...except to work.
So I am completely recanting my previous post regarding no behavior changes. Apparently, $3.60 gas is the tipping point for some.
And not just the "So When Did You Get Your DUI?" bicyclists, or the crystal-meth addicts, but people actually commuting! Most well-to-do people who ride bikes do ride everywhere: the $2200 machines, on top of their Jettas, jetting up to Howell Mountain Road, out to Sonoma & Wine Country, meandering about Valley Springs, Ione, or Sutter Creek. Riding everywhere...except to work.
So I am completely recanting my previous post regarding no behavior changes. Apparently, $3.60 gas is the tipping point for some.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Buy Premium
Although I can't recall when, I do remember when regular gas cost $2.00 a gallon. And remember, when regular was $2.00, mid-grade was $2.10 and premium was $2.20? Always a dime difference. So at that time, the price differential between the lowest and highest grade was 10%.
This morning as I rode the bike past the Valero (the cheapest gas on Franklin Blvd.) the prices were $3.60, $3.70, and $3.80. Still a dime difference...so the price differential between low to high is now only 5.5%. Doesn't that make premium a better deal than before.?
I'm pretty sure I've tried in the past to determine if increased gas mileage from premium justifies the cost. I don't recall it did. But now I only have to get a 5.5% MPG improvement instead of a 10% MPG improvement to justify it. Maybe if I don't run the AC with the windows down anymore... As I understand octane, cars that run correctly on 87won't see increased performance on 90 or 92 and in fact would likely see a decrease in performance, particularly those with lower compression ratios. This post is for all the people with late model cars who would see an improvement because their cars want 90 or 92, but whose owners are too fucking cheap to buy the gas their car was designed for.
I remember my stepdad gassing up the Pacer at an Oregon Texaco years ago, asking the attendant why the station across the street was a little less expensive. Without looking up, he said "We have better gas." Since that day in 1985, I've known that Texaco gas is better. Even though ARCO gas is cheaper, Texaco gas is better. Not only do you have to consider the price of fuel -- please, please, consider the cost to your engine by using an inferior product.
Shouldn't we all be buying better gas anyway? I think so. You wouldn't fill up your car with Chinese gas, now would you? What, with all that lead?
Buy Premium.
This morning as I rode the bike past the Valero (the cheapest gas on Franklin Blvd.) the prices were $3.60, $3.70, and $3.80. Still a dime difference...so the price differential between low to high is now only 5.5%. Doesn't that make premium a better deal than before.?
I'm pretty sure I've tried in the past to determine if increased gas mileage from premium justifies the cost. I don't recall it did. But now I only have to get a 5.5% MPG improvement instead of a 10% MPG improvement to justify it. Maybe if I don't run the AC with the windows down anymore... As I understand octane, cars that run correctly on 87won't see increased performance on 90 or 92 and in fact would likely see a decrease in performance, particularly those with lower compression ratios. This post is for all the people with late model cars who would see an improvement because their cars want 90 or 92, but whose owners are too fucking cheap to buy the gas their car was designed for.
I remember my stepdad gassing up the Pacer at an Oregon Texaco years ago, asking the attendant why the station across the street was a little less expensive. Without looking up, he said "We have better gas." Since that day in 1985, I've known that Texaco gas is better. Even though ARCO gas is cheaper, Texaco gas is better. Not only do you have to consider the price of fuel -- please, please, consider the cost to your engine by using an inferior product.
Shouldn't we all be buying better gas anyway? I think so. You wouldn't fill up your car with Chinese gas, now would you? What, with all that lead?
Buy Premium.
Eggplantation
So far this year, I've directly purchased 11 gallons of gas for commuting to work. It is hard to calculate the gas purchases E-Tran and Sac Regional Transit have had to buy to haul me to and from work. What I'd like to do is calculate my true carbon production. I think I can do it accurately, and particularly calculating all the hidden carbon in the stuff I buy.
I was after a new toothbrush last week. I took the time to identify where each was made -- the vast majority in China. Go figure. But there was one brand made in U.S.A., and that decided it, not the cost. My son Tyler was amused (when we rode to the store for eggplant) that I looked at the fruit stickers to see where they were made -- and that I decided to buy local tomatoes over the better looking Canadian hothouse ones.
The eggplant, though -- Mexico. And not a single bug on them. Bugs never get on them, what with all the well-regulated and limited pesticide use on those Mexican eggplantations. When was the last bug you ever saw on a head of Vons cauliflower? But I digress.
So if a gallon of gas sends up 25 lbs. of CO2, and I use 45 gallons/year for commuting, that's 0.6 tons (1,125 lbs.) this year.
We make a fuss over hybrid this and lithium-ion battery that -- but I've not yet heard of one design for a hybrid tractor-trailer truck. They're gonna run on diesel until there's no more diesel left. And for every six miles one is driven, 25 lbs of CO2 goes up. So if I eat one Mexican eggplant a week and one truck hauls 8,000 eggplants, and the distance from farm to fork is ~750 miles (I don't count the total round trip of 1500 miles as they are likely hauling at least something back to Mexico), and the carbon rate is 4.16 lbs/mile, my eggplants alone will send up 19 lbs. of carbon this year in shipping.
One eggplant has 130 calories. I eat 3,100 calories a day. If I (simplistically) take the numbers forward, that's 1.6 tons/year to transport my food to my hollow leg.
I was after a new toothbrush last week. I took the time to identify where each was made -- the vast majority in China. Go figure. But there was one brand made in U.S.A., and that decided it, not the cost. My son Tyler was amused (when we rode to the store for eggplant) that I looked at the fruit stickers to see where they were made -- and that I decided to buy local tomatoes over the better looking Canadian hothouse ones.
The eggplant, though -- Mexico. And not a single bug on them. Bugs never get on them, what with all the well-regulated and limited pesticide use on those Mexican eggplantations. When was the last bug you ever saw on a head of Vons cauliflower? But I digress.
So if a gallon of gas sends up 25 lbs. of CO2, and I use 45 gallons/year for commuting, that's 0.6 tons (1,125 lbs.) this year.
We make a fuss over hybrid this and lithium-ion battery that -- but I've not yet heard of one design for a hybrid tractor-trailer truck. They're gonna run on diesel until there's no more diesel left. And for every six miles one is driven, 25 lbs of CO2 goes up. So if I eat one Mexican eggplant a week and one truck hauls 8,000 eggplants, and the distance from farm to fork is ~750 miles (I don't count the total round trip of 1500 miles as they are likely hauling at least something back to Mexico), and the carbon rate is 4.16 lbs/mile, my eggplants alone will send up 19 lbs. of carbon this year in shipping.
One eggplant has 130 calories. I eat 3,100 calories a day. If I (simplistically) take the numbers forward, that's 1.6 tons/year to transport my food to my hollow leg.
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Miles From Everywhere
I knew in 1997 when I bought this Elk Grovian house there’d be consequences of living here. I knew I’d never work in one of those 34,000 jobs. I’d bet the lion’s share of those jobs are retail sales associates – all hardly sufficient to support the median home price. So I’d commute. And I did and I still do. But even if I don’t drive to work anymore, there’s still the original issue of the city having spent a fantastic amount of infrastructure to support a home miles away from everything.
When we visit relatives, it’s a 40-mile trip on average. Doctors visits, 30 miles. Grocery shopping, 3 miles. My current desire to live a more sustainable life is in stark contrast to the psychology of mis-investment of having bough a home here. But my house has already been built. Miles from everywhere. And look at my options:
I pay less than $1800 a year in property taxes. My neighbor across the street in the same house with no children pays over twice that. Moving anywhere, even to a smaller home or condo, will cost me thousands more in the long term because of increased home values.
Where are all the properly built, mixed use, human-scaled neighborhoods within a fifty mile radius? Only in pre-WWII Sacramento. Only. Any home there, any home, will cost at least twice as much as this one because they are among the most desired places to live. Hmmm…I wonder why. Moving anywhere else would just be re-arranging the deck chairs.
This house is two years away from being paid off. So, to be ‘greener’, I’ll be paying three times as much in property taxes coupled with starting another mortgage all over again.
But consider where that property and state tax money goes. A large chunk supports regional infrastructure projects that only encourage more sprawl. New interchanges. Watt Avenue bridge widening from four lanes to six. They build them to take advantage of federal matching funds…my federal taxes! On top of that, gas prices are heavily subsidized through our federal taxes and other charges as it is – through new highways, wars to keep oil flowing, health care costs for the thousands of injured and lost economic gains of the thousands of dead motorists, and insurance premiums.
What about staying put, accepting the stupid decision, and spending that money I’d be spending on interest & taxes on things that can have a more meaningful impact? How about triple paned windows? Dual zoned air conditioning? Reflective barriers in the attic? Solar water heating? New bicycle tyres? Reflective paint on the roof? A hybrid car or scooter for the wife? A south-facing garden in the side front yard? Things that the next owner or I would have to replace over the next 5-7 years anyway.
When we visit relatives, it’s a 40-mile trip on average. Doctors visits, 30 miles. Grocery shopping, 3 miles. My current desire to live a more sustainable life is in stark contrast to the psychology of mis-investment of having bough a home here. But my house has already been built. Miles from everywhere. And look at my options:
But consider where that property and state tax money goes. A large chunk supports regional infrastructure projects that only encourage more sprawl. New interchanges. Watt Avenue bridge widening from four lanes to six. They build them to take advantage of federal matching funds…my federal taxes! On top of that, gas prices are heavily subsidized through our federal taxes and other charges as it is – through new highways, wars to keep oil flowing, health care costs for the thousands of injured and lost economic gains of the thousands of dead motorists, and insurance premiums.
What about staying put, accepting the stupid decision, and spending that money I’d be spending on interest & taxes on things that can have a more meaningful impact? How about triple paned windows? Dual zoned air conditioning? Reflective barriers in the attic? Solar water heating? New bicycle tyres? Reflective paint on the roof? A hybrid car or scooter for the wife? A south-facing garden in the side front yard? Things that the next owner or I would have to replace over the next 5-7 years anyway.
Purple Finger
I like following presidential politics. Each major candidate gets to tell the people that they can continue their excessive, consumptive, non-sustainable American lifestyle ad infinitium. Not in so many words, but that’s what they are saying. Americans will not make the connection between our behavior at home and our foreign policy, energy policy, or even domestic policy.
I have been voting third party for a few years now. Kent Mesplay from San Diego was my choice in the last primary, and I think the Green party best represents my ideals. There are, to be sure, fringe-ish and fanatical viewpoints expressed by this party, but I'm concerned not. Overall, they strike the best balance in major areas – ecological sustainability, social justice, peace and non-violence, and grassroots democracy.
Thinking of that last tenant – grassroots democracy -- consider what it takes here, in Elk Grove, to run for a city council seat. In 2004, the three incumbents each raised 100k, 60k, and 80k, all to garner (on average) 40% of the vote. What’s more striking than the raw dollar numbers is that 92% comes from sources outside the city. Yep, and you can easily guess from who: large corporate developers, the Building Industry Association of Superior California, and other sprawl related industries from the Bay Area to Fresno to Los Angeles. Organizations that don’t have to live in the fucking mess they help to create here – single use zoning, big box retail, a city of 115,000 with 34,000 jobs – a 3.5:1 ratio! But they fund their pro-growth henchmen, and while on one hand residents decry more unmitigated, poorly planned sprawl, they’ve got their other hand dipped in purple ink voting for them.
We are galactically stupid.
But we got what we voted for. A city with no active core, no source of business tax revenue, no downtown, distances between things that require six-lane arterial roads to get to, parks that kids can’t get to on their own without parental shuttles, and retail set back from the street three hundred feet to accommodate the sea of required parking that’s lit up under mercury arc-lamps 24 hours a day.
The limited, smart growth candidate has no voice. How I vote: look to the candidate who received the least contributions and that’s who I vote for without even reviewing their campaign statement…(OK, maybe a little hyperbole – I do read them).
Voting third party has another advantage. When asked who I voted for, I can say “I didn’t vote for either of those cocksuckers.”
I have been voting third party for a few years now. Kent Mesplay from San Diego was my choice in the last primary, and I think the Green party best represents my ideals. There are, to be sure, fringe-ish and fanatical viewpoints expressed by this party, but I'm concerned not. Overall, they strike the best balance in major areas – ecological sustainability, social justice, peace and non-violence, and grassroots democracy.
Thinking of that last tenant – grassroots democracy -- consider what it takes here, in Elk Grove, to run for a city council seat. In 2004, the three incumbents each raised 100k, 60k, and 80k, all to garner (on average) 40% of the vote. What’s more striking than the raw dollar numbers is that 92% comes from sources outside the city. Yep, and you can easily guess from who: large corporate developers, the Building Industry Association of Superior California, and other sprawl related industries from the Bay Area to Fresno to Los Angeles. Organizations that don’t have to live in the fucking mess they help to create here – single use zoning, big box retail, a city of 115,000 with 34,000 jobs – a 3.5:1 ratio! But they fund their pro-growth henchmen, and while on one hand residents decry more unmitigated, poorly planned sprawl, they’ve got their other hand dipped in purple ink voting for them.
We are galactically stupid.
But we got what we voted for. A city with no active core, no source of business tax revenue, no downtown, distances between things that require six-lane arterial roads to get to, parks that kids can’t get to on their own without parental shuttles, and retail set back from the street three hundred feet to accommodate the sea of required parking that’s lit up under mercury arc-lamps 24 hours a day.
The limited, smart growth candidate has no voice. How I vote: look to the candidate who received the least contributions and that’s who I vote for without even reviewing their campaign statement…(OK, maybe a little hyperbole – I do read them).
Voting third party has another advantage. When asked who I voted for, I can say “I didn’t vote for either of those cocksuckers.”
Saturday, April 5, 2008
Diemer, For a Change
I'm don't want to appear prescient, but I am a doomer. I quit the California ISO in 2005 for a number of reasons; the foremost being that I didn't believe in the whole re-engineering of electricity markets. I remember quite clearly, in April 1998 thinking how much I didn't like this 'new world order.' It was a much simpler electrical universe as late as 1997. But I kept with it. They paid well.
That's all it was to me, a job I didn't believe in, but they paid well. No satisfaction. And I wasn't good at it. I wasn't any good at understanding the market myself, let alone any ability to communicate it to others. They only paid in dollars. No pensions, sharing programs, retiree medical. Just like most employers today, assuming everyone is mobile, benefits are 'portable': that is, 401k dollars only. Employers are significantly reducing or eliminating traditional retirement benefits.
So I wound up working in a very limited field that I wasn't very good at. For a doomer, this didn't bode well. So I quit and found my current protection engineer job that is 100% recession/depression proof. Relay engineers are needed in every electric utility. I can work anywhere. In an industry with an aging workforce, with a massive wave of retirements coming in the next 10 years. In a productive capacity. With my doomerish take on our fossil fuel positions, I think that electric production will be something to be expanded, not contracted, going forward. And as people get laid off from work during "tough economic times," they are only going to sit at home...and read the want ads in the dark? Hell no, they are going to consume more electricity.
Compare that against jobs selling hot tubs, pool tables, auto insurance, dirt bikes, car stereos, TVs, or any of the other trappings of suburban living. I didn't mention jobs manufacturing these things. Things aren't made locally anymore, because we all wanted to save $3 on that plastic sno kone machine. And things aren't sold locally anymore -- small distributors are squeezed out because they can't order 75,000 sno kone makers at a crack from a factory in Hangzhou. We accept the big box stores as a result.
20% of England's workforce is engaged in the financial services sector. Twenty percent! Jobs that are invented to service the production of real goods produced elsewhere. I think the percentage in the US is 6%. I view the California ISO as the same-- engaged in the imaginary world of financial settlements, forward contracts, congestion revenue rights, real time decremental bids -- and all for a commodity that was produced elsewhere by others.
Imagine Diemer for president. "For A Change" is my slogan. On the heels of my wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, I'm standing at the podium in Michigan, purposely lying to everyone at my rally. You're jobs are coming back! I don't mention that Michiganonians, like everyone else in the US, also wanted to save 4 bucks on that curler set. So you eviscerated your own $96/day labor productive economies and sent them to Mexico. And when the comparative advantage of hair curler manufacturing between Mexico, at $10 dollars/day labor, and Bangladesh, at $6 dollars/day labor is made available, production will move there. So there will be jobs in Michigan -- the UA theater in Dearborn will be selling tickets and popcorn to Highland Park's Century theater's workers on their days off and vice versa.
I become elected.
That's all it was to me, a job I didn't believe in, but they paid well. No satisfaction. And I wasn't good at it. I wasn't any good at understanding the market myself, let alone any ability to communicate it to others. They only paid in dollars. No pensions, sharing programs, retiree medical. Just like most employers today, assuming everyone is mobile, benefits are 'portable': that is, 401k dollars only. Employers are significantly reducing or eliminating traditional retirement benefits.
So I wound up working in a very limited field that I wasn't very good at. For a doomer, this didn't bode well. So I quit and found my current protection engineer job that is 100% recession/depression proof. Relay engineers are needed in every electric utility. I can work anywhere. In an industry with an aging workforce, with a massive wave of retirements coming in the next 10 years. In a productive capacity. With my doomerish take on our fossil fuel positions, I think that electric production will be something to be expanded, not contracted, going forward. And as people get laid off from work during "tough economic times," they are only going to sit at home...and read the want ads in the dark? Hell no, they are going to consume more electricity.
Compare that against jobs selling hot tubs, pool tables, auto insurance, dirt bikes, car stereos, TVs, or any of the other trappings of suburban living. I didn't mention jobs manufacturing these things. Things aren't made locally anymore, because we all wanted to save $3 on that plastic sno kone machine. And things aren't sold locally anymore -- small distributors are squeezed out because they can't order 75,000 sno kone makers at a crack from a factory in Hangzhou. We accept the big box stores as a result.
20% of England's workforce is engaged in the financial services sector. Twenty percent! Jobs that are invented to service the production of real goods produced elsewhere. I think the percentage in the US is 6%. I view the California ISO as the same-- engaged in the imaginary world of financial settlements, forward contracts, congestion revenue rights, real time decremental bids -- and all for a commodity that was produced elsewhere by others.
Imagine Diemer for president. "For A Change" is my slogan. On the heels of my wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, I'm standing at the podium in Michigan, purposely lying to everyone at my rally. You're jobs are coming back! I don't mention that Michiganonians, like everyone else in the US, also wanted to save 4 bucks on that curler set. So you eviscerated your own $96/day labor productive economies and sent them to Mexico. And when the comparative advantage of hair curler manufacturing between Mexico, at $10 dollars/day labor, and Bangladesh, at $6 dollars/day labor is made available, production will move there. So there will be jobs in Michigan -- the UA theater in Dearborn will be selling tickets and popcorn to Highland Park's Century theater's workers on their days off and vice versa.
I become elected.
Full Belly
Another cog in the wheel of sustainability is locally produced food. You've heard of the 'fifteen hundred mile Caesar salad." Lettuce and tomatoes don't grow in Peoria this time of year. If an Illinois-ian wants salad, damn it, they are entitled to get it, and it ought to be the same price as a salad in New Mexico. It's their right.
It sure is. The trucking cost is now increased $270 to get it there, but the Applebee's salad is roughly the same cost as before. So the independent trucker is taking it up the bunghole. Or perhaps any of a number of other players in this food transportation industry are, except, so far, the eater.
Here I sit comfortably in Northern California, blogging away, while my produce is almost all locally grown. To ensure this, I subscribe to a Community Supported Agriculture Farm, Full Belly, in Guinda, CA. Not only can I ensure where it's grown, I know exactly by who, and I know how. I also know when -- it's all grown in season. I get tomatoes in late summer. Only. Asparagus right now. And I also know why -- a group of farmers who did not have to borrow money in '06 and '07 to keep things growing, and have an committed interest in organic, sustainable agriculture.
Do I pay more? Of course. Is this a privilege of the wealthy? Absolutely not. I will never subscribe to a lack of food, or the price of food, as the cause of hunger in the U.S. Never. Beans and rice support entire families in other countries for less than a dollar a day. I will never be concerned about the price of eggs, milk, cheese, meat, and butter (the staples in this country!) as they apply to the cause of hunger in the U.S. Bullshit.
Would my views change if I lived in Montana? I really don't know. I 'happen' to live in a region flush with water, good agricultural land, a long growing season...so when I say I buy locally now, I am able to do so with minimal sacrifice. A guy from Minnesota would have available much less 'choice' in locally produced food.
The point is, I try to buy locally. I've got a ways to go on this one. We have native resources to move goods inter-regionally and I am not opposed to their use. I am, however, opposed to have to buy my potatoes from Idaho, because of economies of scale, or asparagus from Peru/Mexico, wheat from Washington, tomatoes from greenhouses in Canada, bananas from Ecuador, and corn syrup from Nebraska. I can choose not to buy out of season and out of region. So I don't eat watermelon in April...even though it's in every supermarket chain I walk into.
That's not to say I don't eat a banana. Or a bagel made from wheat that only God knows where it was grown. Or ribs from a cow slaughtered in Missouri. But I am making inroads. Cows aren't grown locally anymore because diesel is so fucking cheap that it makes sense to raise them by the hundred thousand in corn country and ship them to all four corners. If I eat ribs, I really have no choice but to eat remotely. So the only thing I can do is to limit, or not eat them at all. If more did what I did, however, how many truckers would we be 'throwing out of work?" Or highway workers? Or diesel mechanics?
It sure is. The trucking cost is now increased $270 to get it there, but the Applebee's salad is roughly the same cost as before. So the independent trucker is taking it up the bunghole. Or perhaps any of a number of other players in this food transportation industry are, except, so far, the eater.
Here I sit comfortably in Northern California, blogging away, while my produce is almost all locally grown. To ensure this, I subscribe to a Community Supported Agriculture Farm, Full Belly, in Guinda, CA. Not only can I ensure where it's grown, I know exactly by who, and I know how. I also know when -- it's all grown in season. I get tomatoes in late summer. Only. Asparagus right now. And I also know why -- a group of farmers who did not have to borrow money in '06 and '07 to keep things growing, and have an committed interest in organic, sustainable agriculture.
Do I pay more? Of course. Is this a privilege of the wealthy? Absolutely not. I will never subscribe to a lack of food, or the price of food, as the cause of hunger in the U.S. Never. Beans and rice support entire families in other countries for less than a dollar a day. I will never be concerned about the price of eggs, milk, cheese, meat, and butter (the staples in this country!) as they apply to the cause of hunger in the U.S. Bullshit.
Would my views change if I lived in Montana? I really don't know. I 'happen' to live in a region flush with water, good agricultural land, a long growing season...so when I say I buy locally now, I am able to do so with minimal sacrifice. A guy from Minnesota would have available much less 'choice' in locally produced food.
The point is, I try to buy locally. I've got a ways to go on this one. We have native resources to move goods inter-regionally and I am not opposed to their use. I am, however, opposed to have to buy my potatoes from Idaho, because of economies of scale, or asparagus from Peru/Mexico, wheat from Washington, tomatoes from greenhouses in Canada, bananas from Ecuador, and corn syrup from Nebraska. I can choose not to buy out of season and out of region. So I don't eat watermelon in April...even though it's in every supermarket chain I walk into.
That's not to say I don't eat a banana. Or a bagel made from wheat that only God knows where it was grown. Or ribs from a cow slaughtered in Missouri. But I am making inroads. Cows aren't grown locally anymore because diesel is so fucking cheap that it makes sense to raise them by the hundred thousand in corn country and ship them to all four corners. If I eat ribs, I really have no choice but to eat remotely. So the only thing I can do is to limit, or not eat them at all. If more did what I did, however, how many truckers would we be 'throwing out of work?" Or highway workers? Or diesel mechanics?
Thursday, April 3, 2008
600 to 1
How is it 'easier' to adjust to gradually rising energy, vs. fast rising energy?
Our economy is based on this perception. Fast rises, and we're enraged! Big Oil! Those Bastards! Slow rises, and we only grumble a little, but in the end...we get the same damn result.
California gas usage is 1.4% less than this time last year. Increase gas prices 50%, add a recession, and demand decreases a whopping 1.4%! Go ahead, bitch about the price. But you won't back off using it.
This shows how very little time and money are needed to buy a shitload of energy. We spend less than 5% of our GDP on energy. It is amazingly cheap. One bottom rung worker can still buy a gallon of gas for less than an hour's work. That gallon has the equivalent energy of 600 hours of his labor. A 600:1 ratio! And that's expensive?
Every day, Concord residents commute to Folsom and back. Elk Grove to Santa Clara. Escondido to National City. Even the unemployed have to drive to the unemployment office. This is the American mandate -- squander energy. This is the EGCMP in action.
Our economy is based on this perception. Fast rises, and we're enraged! Big Oil! Those Bastards! Slow rises, and we only grumble a little, but in the end...we get the same damn result.
California gas usage is 1.4% less than this time last year. Increase gas prices 50%, add a recession, and demand decreases a whopping 1.4%! Go ahead, bitch about the price. But you won't back off using it.
This shows how very little time and money are needed to buy a shitload of energy. We spend less than 5% of our GDP on energy. It is amazingly cheap. One bottom rung worker can still buy a gallon of gas for less than an hour's work. That gallon has the equivalent energy of 600 hours of his labor. A 600:1 ratio! And that's expensive?
Every day, Concord residents commute to Folsom and back. Elk Grove to Santa Clara. Escondido to National City. Even the unemployed have to drive to the unemployment office. This is the American mandate -- squander energy. This is the EGCMP in action.
Energy Racism
It's Chinese and Indian demand for oil that's the cause for our high prices, isn't it? Absolutely! Jacking up the price, those bastards. How is it that the bicycle and rickshaw aren't good enough for them anymore? We never had that history so clearly those forms of transport don't apply to us. And screw their Tata Nanos!
You can see it coming. You can feel the racism swelling. We complain about the Iraq war, but we complain even more about an extra thirty five cents a gallon for gas. Now, they (collectively) are the problem. Their demand might soon be in direct confrontation with our Carter Doctrine.
An Albertan tar sand pipeline to their west coast? To export their energy to China instead of us? Unthinkable.
I am waiting for that single resource shortage to occur. Won't happen anytime soon, I think, but it will happen soon enough. How do you suppose our southern evangelical NASCAR population will respond? "We must fight the energy tyranny of the Far East." This isn't as far fetched as it sounds. We're waging an Iraq war against a much less credible threat. Isn't a thirty five cent reduction worth going to war? I say it is. How did our oil get under their sand?
You can see it coming. You can feel the racism swelling. We complain about the Iraq war, but we complain even more about an extra thirty five cents a gallon for gas. Now, they (collectively) are the problem. Their demand might soon be in direct confrontation with our Carter Doctrine.
An Albertan tar sand pipeline to their west coast? To export their energy to China instead of us? Unthinkable.
I am waiting for that single resource shortage to occur. Won't happen anytime soon, I think, but it will happen soon enough. How do you suppose our southern evangelical NASCAR population will respond? "We must fight the energy tyranny of the Far East." This isn't as far fetched as it sounds. We're waging an Iraq war against a much less credible threat. Isn't a thirty five cent reduction worth going to war? I say it is. How did our oil get under their sand?
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Rolled in Parts
I don't think high energy prices are here to stay, the fundamentals don't support them.
I said the same thing in 2003 -- when the popular belief held that homes were going to continue to rise 20% each year ad infinitium (my favorite Latin phrase of late). But, I was three years early. Man, did I miss out on lost growth! Between '03 and '06, I didn't flip a house, didn't do any cash out refis, or take on a 'dream' no down, 125% LTV, 1% ARM loan -- on that beautiful, new 4,000 sq ft house in the Elk Grovian Hamptons. Did I miss out? Man, Did I Ever!
My rule -- never take on a mortgage more than 2*household gross. Median Elk Grove income in '06 was $77,064. So with 20% down (with a national negative savings rate...yeah, right) -- go get yourself that 185k house. That's what the median should be. It ain't. Median income should afford the median house. I can't imagine a sustainable economic pattern without this fundamental.
Speculation and the falling dollar are driving energy prices. Another unsustainable system. Not, as Bush said, "it should be obvious to you that demand is outstripping supply, causing prices to go up." Is that so? The facts get in the way of his statements. Refined domestic reserves are at their highest levels. Domestic demand has fallen 3-4% from last year (the source of all the new faces on the bus).
The economy has been dipped in oil and rolled in parts. I am a big fan of doom but I don't think it will crash. Gas will stabilize at $3.20 (the short-term, that is). A few truckers will get squeezed out, buried alongside the fresh graves of all those florists-turned-real estate agents.
I said the same thing in 2003 -- when the popular belief held that homes were going to continue to rise 20% each year ad infinitium (my favorite Latin phrase of late). But, I was three years early. Man, did I miss out on lost growth! Between '03 and '06, I didn't flip a house, didn't do any cash out refis, or take on a 'dream' no down, 125% LTV, 1% ARM loan -- on that beautiful, new 4,000 sq ft house in the Elk Grovian Hamptons. Did I miss out? Man, Did I Ever!
My rule -- never take on a mortgage more than 2*household gross. Median Elk Grove income in '06 was $77,064. So with 20% down (with a national negative savings rate...yeah, right) -- go get yourself that 185k house. That's what the median should be. It ain't. Median income should afford the median house. I can't imagine a sustainable economic pattern without this fundamental.
Speculation and the falling dollar are driving energy prices. Another unsustainable system. Not, as Bush said, "it should be obvious to you that demand is outstripping supply, causing prices to go up." Is that so? The facts get in the way of his statements. Refined domestic reserves are at their highest levels. Domestic demand has fallen 3-4% from last year (the source of all the new faces on the bus).
The economy has been dipped in oil and rolled in parts. I am a big fan of doom but I don't think it will crash. Gas will stabilize at $3.20 (the short-term, that is). A few truckers will get squeezed out, buried alongside the fresh graves of all those florists-turned-real estate agents.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
W^2
I'm sure that the majority of all environmentalists fit this suit's profile: white, affluent, discretionary income, and will conspicuously drive a car run on a 40/60 blend of bat shit and corn ethanol. Environmentalism is for 'whites only.'
I wonder about my own case. If I were brown, I highly doubt I'd be blogging about saving the earth. This is my observation, and it is true. Every Mexican American I know couldn't give a shit about their environment. "The air's plenty clean enough" I've heard. I can't speak for Blacks, Asians, Middle Easterners, or Eastern Europeans, but I do observe: how many people within a 4-mile radius of 44th Street and 44th Avenue here in Sacramento drive a Prius? Exactly zero. And the racial makeup? Predominately brown. One might argue that this isn't a race issue -- all people are affected by the climate or the pollutant de jour. But isn't it?
Then maybe it's a class issue -- because only the upper middle class can afford PV panels, or hybrid technology, or home wind turbines, or energystar appliances. The environment isn't a concern for the upper class -- they, like the lowest economic class, both see it as just a nuisance.
I must explore this issue further. Is environmentalism solely the domain of mid-range wealthy whites (W^2)? Seems to me it is. And it seems to me that they are really only interested in clean parks for their kids and keeping their big cars running at any cost.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
