The Second Coming

My sister-in-law disclosed her $400 per month gasoline bill to shuttle herself from South Sacramento to Rocklin 5 times a week for work. $400 a month.

This in a Ford Explorer, a rig that was pretty cheap to operate when they purchased it in 2006 at the height of our hallucinated economic boom, when gas was what, $2.39 & 9/10ths? Even if gas drops 50% to $2 a gallon (which is highly probable) it'll still cost two bills to operate each month.

The job in Rocklin wasn't part of their program in 2006, part of the cheap oil lifestyle. And even if commuting to Rocklin was part of their everyday living back then, well, $2 gas was just a simple cost of doing so, much like tires and oil...just another small expenditure to live the hypertrophic extreme auto dependent Californian lifestyle.

I wonder. How many Rocklinites grind out commutes to Sacramento each day to work at $22 an hour jobs? I'd wager that more make that commute, because Rocklin living is far superior to Sacramento living. It's the wealthy suburbs. It's beyond Roseville, the red-headed stepchild of Sacramento. Rocklin residents are superior in every metric: higher per-capita income, higher white-collar crime but far, far lower liquor store hold-ups, $37k imported sedans are the norm rather than $19k domestic minivans...life is...simply...superior in Rocklin. No mixed race issues to bugger things up, no visible drunks, just affluent people who look like everyone else living the good life, drinking Chablis on the porches of $445k custom housal units. The way life ought to be.

The commute in and out of Rocklin is a total bitch on the best of days and slit-your-wrists on, say, Tuesday afternoons as everyone tries to motor along two-lane collector roads to get in and out of all those myriad cul-de-sacs...living at its finest. Then! The commute down I-80 through that chockablock Roseville turn! $400 a month in gas is nothing, nothing! to $135k/year real estate professionals, financial planners and insurance saleswomen. Their FIRE jobs can easily support $10 gasoline, if need be. So long as they are able to stay one step away from urban dwellers (a politically correct codeword) they are willing to pay any price for gas to keep them isolated.

I argue these points, not because I'm in awe of what these people have that I don't. What, a pair of leased BMW's in the driveway of a $445k custom housal unit with a mortgage balance of $311,257 remaining? Sorry, I'm not in awe. I argue these points because cheap energy allowed many more of us to economically segregate ourselves miles and miles away from each other. They don't ever have to mix with people who don't look like them...and truthfully, I could easily see their point. However, what passes for community is eroded down even further with such living arrangements, and while sheltered in 3,100 sq ft units with granite countertops and gold plated showerheads feels safe, it is incredibly energy intensive.

And completely unsustainable.

I still believe, in the same way that many believe in a spooky invisible father figure, that we are reaching the limits of growth in energy. We won't run out of energy; no, but the costs of growing our energy supply to support Rocklin commuters and indeed commuters of all sorts is likely going to become prohibitive for many. It is a belief, yes. I can observe things around me and form some opinions. And I believe that with the observable North Sea, Mexican Cantrell, Indonesia and the Alaskan North Slope all producing less and less oil each day going forward, while China and Brazil and India and Bangladesh and South Korea all trying to mature their economies on a western-style approach (read: cars, cars, and more cars), we are going to reach the limit of maximum extraction. Demand will exceed supply, and the moment that occurs, we'll be locked into an oscillating price run up, demand destruction, price drop, increased production, price run up even further, and on and on.

Holding this belief is like waiting for the second coming. It is very nearly a religion of sorts, yes, because I'm taking the word of a few thousand petroleum experts on faith, in much the same way parishioners do.

But as I do hold this belief, I am trying to adjust today for an expensive energy tomorrow. I am one to believe that if it costs $400 a month for gasoline today to commute to Rocklin five days a week, if energy doubles in price tomorrow, even buying a fuel efficient car won't offset the total cost of living this way. Now you've got a $400/month car payment for six years in addition to a $200 fuel bill. These aren't the things I want to face, and so I've learned to sit next to Asians, Blacks and other Whites on the bus. Contrary to the prevailing Rocklin opinion, you won't get knifed or mugged. I've learned to ride a bike. Contrary to the prevailing Rocklin opinion, cars aren't all that dangerous -- it's the pedestrians and wrong-way bicyclists who are the most dangerous. Not to mention, a twenty-nine mile one-way bicycle commute from Rocklin into Sacramento is hardly something you'd be able to sustain for any length of time.

I am awaiting the increase in energy as you may be awaiting the second coming. One substantial difference is that we've had two energy shakedowns in the '70s that portends another one. I guess you could argue that hurricanes and tornadoes portend the second coming, yes. But I do see another storm looming on the horizon...