Forecast 2011

Another round of Monologuonian forecasts, yes? Yet another year of failed predictions? You got it.

I called 2010 as a year of crisis, not of complacency, and no one would argue that I missed this one completely. I had assumed at the start of twenty ten, following a twenty 'o nine of complacency that we'd arrive to the realization that our nation is broke, our state governments are broke, our municipal governments are broke, and our consumers are even more broke, and that somehow this would manifest in some rather unpleasant outcomes. Alas, we were able to avoid all that through quantitative easing and other accounting chicanery at the state level, with the obvious consequence that we are another two trillion in the hole.

I also missed, by a long shot, a rising dollar and falling commodities due to the machinations of deflation.

I'm just a blogger, really; there ain't anything special about my ability/inability to forecast. I have no access to data other than hunch and guesses to guide me, so with that in mind, here's my projections for twenty eleven:

We will have surpassed the sixteen trillion ($16,000,000,000,000) mark on the federal deficit by year's end, and we will collectively care as much about this as we ever have -- which is, not in the least. We'll see Obama, who as a senator in March of 2006 voted against increasing then then debt ceiling, raise it several billion more as president lest we be forced to default on our debt obligations. We'll not hear him repeat his then-argument that "Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children..." We oft hear how we are supposed to "help" our children, "save" our children, "care" for our children. Know what we're actually saying? Fuck the children! Our parents said the same thing about their public debts passed on to us and we turned out to be even better consumers on borrowed monies than they were. The debt will mean nothing to anyone. In 2011, ask anyone you know what the national debt is, and you'll have one chance in six that they'll be right to within $1,000,000,000,000.

Oil will stay relatively pricey, and by the start of the summer driving season (yeah, we annotate a time of year dedicated to the consumption of ever more foreign oil) the price of a gallon of gasoline will again be on the collective minds of consumers. We'll devote an increasingly disproportionate level of media attention to the thirty odd thousand electric cars sold to uber-wealthy so-called conservationists in San Diego and San Francisco and ignore the other eleven odd million gasoline powered vehicle sales and the fact that we will have gone from 51% of oil from foreign sources to something greater, against the forecasts from our own government that projects a percentage drop to ~45% by 2035. We will only be more dependent on external energy by the end of this year, not less.

Do I call for a chaotic 2011? Remember, the American project can only aspire for two conditions -- crisis and complacency. We cannot fall in the middle. We cannot engage the long term, neither on a national level nor on a personal level. We have no situational awareness of anything beyond the next paycheck or beyond the next quarter. Financial bubbles are built based on this condition, and burst by their inherent instabilities. The herd mentality of Americans, following Dancing With The Stars and NASCAR, cannot save for their futures. Only the first buffaloes can see the cliff coming, but by then the momentum of the herd behind them forces them all off the cliff. Although I was quite wrong about 2010 being labeled a crisis year, I will not call for 2011 to be. I base this on the subjectiveness of a 2011 that won't rebound from the recession that has, of course, long ago ended. I see stagnant wages, unemployment that will remain within 0.4% of what it is this morning based on the re-re-re-re-re-extension of benefits which allows said unemployed to continue to follow their American Idols or Dancing Stars. Those who do find jobs? 2011 will show another marked increase in service sector, large format retail and "drinking places" employment, while real jobs that carry a nation continue to be lost. Manufacturing as a percentage of employment will be less on Jan 1, 2012 than today. We won't really address our public debts, and as a consequence we'll realize that the services we demand cannot actually be paid for, but we won't revolt. No not in our Prozac nation glued to their blackberries, laptops and twitter accounts. We don't have the balls or the desire to mount any reformation. Gulf oil spills couldn't deter anyone from gassing up the Pacer for a trip to the mall on Black Friday. I am now of the opinion that the conditions for a crisis year will rest upon a foundation of several complacent ones. We are probably not there yet.

Consequently, I see Afghanistan virtually ignored again by our nation in 2011, and I'm calling for an increase in our presence there. Meh. The NFL playoffs are about to begin, while ground zero mosques, marijuana legalization, flag lapel pins and the rights of gays (don't ask, don't tell) are going to again consume a fair share of our collective energies. Our war will go unnoticed.

Global warming? Won't be at all an issue in 2011. Ignored, too. "Green shoots" of the economic variety are more headline worthy than the environmental sort.

Our economy will remain flummoxed under more quantitative easing, more useless discussions on financial executive compensation, and will rely less on real productive activity. The Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) economy sectors will simply find other way and means to extract wealth from actual production and will continue to hold an impressive swath of our GDP. Target and WalMart will enjoy an increasing percentage of the retail sector.

I don't see 2011 as a year with any appreciable Middle East flare ups, Latin American debt defaults, North Korean nuclear assaults, Saudi Arabian leadership disputes, African nation peace treaties, fewer Northern Mexican beheadings, or European Euro-zone crises. Sure, varying degree of chaos will inevitably occur this year but it won't be out of the ordinary, and if so, will be completely ignored by Americans. Remember, Daytona is fewer than fifty days away!



I know that 2011 will be a pivotal year for me personally as I will have extinguished my mortgage. This should only happen once in my lifetime. I should hope that I don't find the need to ever mortgage another housal unit even as I move on, as I hope to (gasp!) have some savings to support any increasing real estate venture. I should hope that I continue my commitment to economic frugality and to always live within my means, and I would hope that an increasing number in my nation can find the wherewithal to do the same. If we can do this personally we might strive to develop governments with the same outlook. It does, however, require a long term vision...something in rather short supply. Will 2011 be a year where Jerry Brown and the state legislature will actually tackle runaway state deficits? I give him low odds, unfortunately, as I do for all the other governmental bodies that represent me. I see 2011 just as polarizing, with a government that cannot govern effectively due to the 50/50 split that pervades both the population and the legislative process. With no meaningful reforms born in 2011, this will indeed feed our complacency.

There you have it. Vague, nebulous predictions for 2011. Here's my wish for you to have a fine 2011 and to find solutions (they are abound) to all the challanges, like spelling, that lay before us.