Saturday, December 12, 2009

Chinese Cars

You were aware that China will sell more cars than the U.S this year, yes?

What will invariably happen, with tens of millions of new vehicles in that country, will be the Elk Grovification of former Chinese farmland and open space to create concrete/asphalt roads to get Betty Liu and Billy Chu out of their awful cities and into new suburban homes. Note that China has about 18 cars per 1,000 people...compared to the U.S. with 765 motor vehicles per 1,000. A quintupling wouldn't even begin to halve the disparity between us.

All occurring in a nation with a substantial savings rate, holding a substantial volume of U.S. debt, and with less than 2% of the world's crude reserves. These aren't batterized vehicles, they ain't hybrids and they aren't powered by alt.energy -- they are all gasoline powered, and several hundreds of millions more are coming, and deservedly so. When they quintuple their number of vehicles to 90 per 1,000, that would put them with the same number of cars per capita that the U.S. had in 1927.

Either the rest of the world comes up to the current American way of life, or the American way of life falls back to equalize with the rest of the world. What do you think will really happen? Do you really think China will someday have .765 cars per person?

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