Two Eighty Eight

As a bicyclist commuter, I'm hoping for a full on economic depression or severe oil shock.

I am nearing my 9,000th mile on a Cannondale T-800. I've worn out hubs, chainrings, two chains, bottom bracket, and the rear cassette, but it's still running OK. I haven't yet worn out my calves or thighs. But having not yet crashed or had any significant accident with another moving vehicle, my time is due.

Assume on Franklin Blvd. during commute hours I'm passed by say 12 cars per mile on average (cars in the #2 lane only), and my daily commute length is 24 miles. So I'm exposed to 288 potentially lethal vehicles every day I ride. These cars are driven by people, like several of my co-workers, who tell me that they want to bike to work but it's too dangerous. Why? Because of all the damn cars! And they are one more reason why. People don't realize they are traffic.

An informal co-worker poll reveals they aren't concerned about bicycle commuting, but their spouses are. In either case, they haven't tried it, gas prices be damned. I still haven't seen a single additional cyclist on the road since the run-up in gas. What I have seen, though, are new faces on the bus. On days I don't bike, I take the Bighorn Express bus offered by E-tran up I-5 to Sactown, and grab light rail right to my office door. I take a few different times, and each time !surprise! -- there are new people.

So. Gas prices have pared that 288 figure down, say to 285. It's just a guess of course. But imagine what a real oil shock might do! Suddenly I'm down to perhaps 275 and things are becoming bright and beautiful. Also, the cars that would be removed were driven by people living on the economic margins. Likely people who only pretended to keep their cars in good working order, just like so many drivers today who only pretend to have a license and insurance.

Better for me! Fewer chances for my number to come up, and if it does, better odds of wrecking with someone who might just stop and who might just have insurance to cover their fault.

Then add a depression! Assume the oil shock above, which kickstalls our assumed 4% ad infinitum perpetual GDP growth. Then I'm down to only 250 daily rolls of death's dice...I feel safer just thinking about it.